(May 18, 2009 Release)
Highlights
• The housing market index rose by 2 points in May to 16 from a 14 registered in April.
• The May index of 16 remains well below the 20 index of a year ago; but is 48 percent above its 6 month average.
• The buyer traffic index heald steady at 13 in May.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months rose 3 points to 27 compared to an April index of 24.
| NAHB Housing Market Index | ||||
| May 09 | April 09 | 3 mo Avg | 6 mo Avg | |
| Housing Market Index | 16 | 14 | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| Northeast | 18 | 15 | 13.7 | 11.7 |
| Midwest | 14 | 14 | 12 | 9.3 |
| South | 18 | 17 | 15.7 | 13.3 |
| West | 12 | 8 | 8.3 | 6.8 |
| Single Family Sales | ||||
| Present | 14 | 12 | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| Next 6 months | 27 | 24 | 22.0 | 19.0 |
| Buyer Traffic | 13 | 13 | 11.7 | 10.2 |
Source: National Association of Home Builders
Analysis
The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The May numbers reflects a positive development for the building industry. Although the indices for all of the categories in the survey are still well below year ago levels, home builders were more confident about their current and future business conditions than they were a month earlier and more importantly 6 months ago. The index appears to have bottomed in January at 8. However, the May index remains at a relatively low level and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses and tight credit conditions. We will need to see several upticks of the housing market index before laying claim that the homebuilding industry is on the road to recovery.
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