(June 15, 2009 Release)
Highlights
• The housing market index fell by 1 point in June to 15 from a 16 registered in May.
• The June index of 15 is 3 points below the 18 index of a year ago; but is 27 percent above its 6 month average.
• The buyer traffic index heald steady at 13 in June.
• Homebuilder expectations over the next 6 months fell 1 point to 26 compared to a May index of 27.
| NAHB Housing Market Index | ||||
| Jun 09 | Mayl 09 | 3 mo Avg | 6 mo Avg | |
| Housing Market Index | 15 | 16 | 15.0 | 11.8 |
| Northeast | 20 | 19 | 18.0 | 13.3 |
| Midwest | 15 | 14 | 14.3 | 10.8 |
| South | 15 | 18 | 16.7 | 14.2 |
| West | 14 | 12 | 11.3 | 8.0 |
| Single Family Sales | ||||
| Present | 14 | 14 | 13.3 | 10.2 |
| Next 6 months | 26 | 27 | 25.7 | 20.1 |
| Buyer Traffic | 13 | 13 | 13.0 | 11.2 |
Source: National Association of Home Builders
Analysis
The housing market index is a leading indicator of future new home sales. The June numbers were disappointing for the building industry and may reflect an upward movement in mortgage rates during the past month. The indices for all of the categories in the survey are still well below year ago levels. The index appears to have bottomed in January at 8. However, the June index remains at a relatively low level and a downside still remains due to the economic recession, mounting job losses, rising mortgage rates and tight credit conditions. An excess inventory of homes and mounting foreclosures also continue to keep builder optimism at bay. We will need to see several upticks of the housing market index before laying claim that the homebuilding industry is on the road to recovery.
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