A panel of 103 leading housing economists and real estate experts predict cumulative home prices will rise an average only 8.3 percent over at least the next three years, according to the latest 2010 MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey.
This month the average projection of home price performance through 2014 reached its lowest point since the survey’s inception, although overall, our panel’s expectations did not change substantially relative to last month, said Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist.
“There has been much debate recently about quantitative easing and the risk of longer term core inflation in the U.S. economy. But our survey data show that such concerns have not yet contributed to any increased expectations for prices in the housing market,” Shiller added.
As was the case last month, the November data showed that the panel was evenly-split among a group of experts who foresee the onset of housing recovery by 2011, and those who don’t expect a rebound to take hold until sometime in 2012 or later.
Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director, said that the persistence of subdued expectations for price growth and large divergence of opinion among the experts are symptoms of significant stress in the U.S. housing market. Loebs said, “Average data from the most pessimistic quartile of panelists - grouped according to expected price growth through 2011 - suggest that home prices at the end of 2014 will be lower than they were at the end of 2009. Even the most optimistic quartile points to prices falling short of the pre-bubble, baseline trend by the end of 2014. Overall, the survey indicates a mostly cloudy and downbeat forecast for U.S. home prices, with forward-looking confidence waning.”
The survey was conducted during the period November 1st through November 17th.