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Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won't fade away in the fall and winter because an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today's housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

This Time the Recovery is for Real

Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states. New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why? Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states. New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why? Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won’t fade away in the fall and winter because an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today’s housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.

That’s the thesis of a new outlook on the housing economy published today by CoreLogic’s chief economy, Mark Fleming.

Noting that CoreLogic’s price index shows a 4.6 percent increase, the housing is now a significant positive sector contributing to GDP growth, Fleming said that the recovery is spreading geographically as prices are increasing in all but six states. New home sales are up 24 percent over a year ago and existing home sales are up 11 percent.

Fleming said the biggest constraint supply is the 22 percent of mortgaged owners who owe more on their homes than they are worth and the 45 percent of all mortgaged homeowners who are “under-equitied” and cannot afford a 20 percent down payment on a conventional mortgage.

He predicts prices will decline 0.9 percent in November and 1.2 percent in December as growth decelerates, and the year will end with an implied growth rate of 5.5 percent this year.

“Why? Price gains observed on a month-over-month basis between February and May were the strongest we have seen since the beginning of the series in 1976 and were driven by the uniqueness of this recovery” Fleming said.

“Simply trending out the fall and winter fade in growth sill results in a housing market that has appreciated more than 5 percent in 2012,” he said.

One comment

  1. Give the guy a chance! Has any other prnisdeet, or any other politician anywhere for that matter, been judged a success or failure after less than a year in office? Considering the mess he inherited, in both domestic and foreign affairs, he has done very well. He has come closer than any previous prnisdeet to passing healthcare reform, he has made some progress on climate change albeit not enough and he has done much to restore America’s reputation around the globe, as the post below on his multilateral foreign policy notes. The economy will take some time to turn around, but it would be even worse than it is but for his interventions. Also, consider the contrast between the response to the earthquake in Haiti and the response to Hurricane Katrina.The point is that he has made a good start on fulfilling his election promises and has been consistent with his policies. Only children and fools expect instant results and magic wands, something he never promised.The American people should appreciate him. Good luck to him and all his endeavours.

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