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July 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2012 and rise by 1.8 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2013m, the fastest pace since 1977, according to CoreLogic's Pending HPI released this morning.

CoreLogic: July Prices to Increase 12.5 Percent

July 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2012 and rise by 1.8 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2013m, the fastest pace since 1977, according to CoreLogic’s Pending HPI released this morning.

Excluding distressed sales, July 2013 home prices are poised to rise 11.4 percent year over year from July 2012 and by 1.3 percent month over month from June 2013. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in June 2013 compared to June 2012. This change represents the 16th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.9 percent in June 2013 compared to May 2013*.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11 percent in June 2013 compared to June 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.8 percent in June 2013 compared to May 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“In the first six months of 2013, the U.S. housing market appreciated a remarkable 10 percent,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This trend in home price gains is moving at the fastest pace since 1977.”

“The U.S. housing market experienced robust price appreciation during the first half of 2013 and our forecast calls for double-digit growth through July,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Despite their rebound of late, home prices remain reasonable in a historical context, with most states near peak affordability levels.”

Highlights as of June 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+26.5 percent), California (+21.4 percent), Wyoming (+16.7 percent), Arizona (+16.2 percent) and Georgia (+14.3 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, this month only two states posted home price depreciation: Mississippi (-2.1 percent) and Delaware (-1.1 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+23.6 percent), California (+18.7 percent), Arizona (+14.1 percent), Utah (+13.8 percent) and Florida (+12.7 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in June.
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to June 2013) was -19 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -14 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-44.3 percent), Florida (-38.6 percent), Arizona (-33.9 percent), Rhode Island (-31.7 percent), and Michigan (-31.1 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 99 were showing year-over-year increases in June, up from 98 in May 2013.

*May data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

June HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

CBSA

June 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by CBSA

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

20.7%

19.0%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

19.8%

18.6%

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

17.1%

14.7%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

16.1%

13.3%

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

10.0%

10.8%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

9.9%

10.9%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

9.4%

9.4%

New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ

7.2%

7.5%

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL

4.6%

8.4%

Philadelphia, PA

3.9%

4.9%

Source: CoreLogic.

June National and State HPI (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

State

June 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by State

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

National

11.9%

11.0%

Nevada

26.5%

23.6%

California

21.4%

18.7%

Wyoming

16.7%

11.9%

Arizona

16.2%

14.1%

Georgia

14.3%

12.2%

Oregon

14.2%

12.3%

Utah

13.5%

13.8%

Hawaii

13.0%

10.7%

Montana

13.0%

10.0%

Idaho

12.8%

12.7%

Washington

11.9%

12.3%

Florida

11.0%

12.7%

District of Columbia

10.9%

10.3%

North Dakota

10.8%

6.7%

Colorado

9.2%

8.6%

Michigan

8.8%

9.0%

Massachusetts

8.7%

6.3%

Texas

8.5%

9.7%

South Carolina

8.2%

7.7%

New York

8.0%

7.9%

Virginia

7.9%

7.8%

Minnesota

7.3%

7.1%

Maine

7.1%

8.2%

West Virginia

6.2%

12.6%

Tennessee

5.9%

6.7%

South Dakota

5.6%

5.3%

Maryland

5.4%

7.1%

New Hampshire

5.4%

6.3%

Alaska

5.2%

6.8%

North Carolina

5.1%

6.9%

Nebraska

4.8%

4.4%

Kansas

4.5%

8.0%

Louisiana

4.0%

4.3%

Missouri

3.7%

5.2%

Vermont

3.5%

4.7%

Indiana

3.4%

4.4%

Ohio

3.3%

5.6%

Illinois

3.2%

6.5%

Pennsylvania

3.1%

4.4%

New Jersey

3.0%

3.7%

Connecticut

2.9%

4.2%

Wisconsin

2.9%

3.4%

Oklahoma

2.8%

2.9%

Rhode Island

2.8%

4.8%

Iowa

2.6%

2.9%

Kentucky

2.2%

4.1%

Arkansas

2.2%

3.6%

New Mexico

1.3%

2.8%

Alabama

1.2%

4.3%

Delaware

-1.1%

2.0%

Mississippi

-2.1%

1.6%

Source: CoreLogic.

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