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The housing recovery will keep rolling right along through August as price increases continue to score in the double digit range and rise for the 18th straight month, according to CoreLogic's pending sales index.

CoreLogic: Prices to Rise 12.3 Percent in August

The housing recovery will keep rolling right along through August as price increases continue to score in the double digit range and rise for the 18th straight month, according to CoreLogic’s pending sales index.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in July 2013 compared to July 2012. Prices are rising even faster than they did in the first half of the year, when they averaged 10 percent from January through June. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.8 percent in July 2013 compared to June 2013,

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.4 percent in July 2013 compared to July 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.7 percent in July 2013 compared to June 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that August 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from August 2012 and rise by 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis from July 2013. Excluding distressed sales, August 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year over year from August 2012 and by 1.2 percent month over month from July 2013. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“Home prices continued to surge in July,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Looking ahead to the second half of the year, price growth is expected to slow as seasonal demand wanes and higher mortgage rates have a marginal impact on home purchase demand.”

“Home prices continue to climb across the nation in July with markets hit hardest during the downturn leading the way,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nationally, home prices are now within 18 percent of their peak levels reached in April of 2006.”

Highlights as of July 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+27 percent), California (+23.2 percent), Arizona (+17 percent), Wyoming (+16.4 percent) and Oregon (+15 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, this month only one state posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-1.3 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+24.2 percent), California (+20.2 percent), Arizona (+14.9 percent), Utah (+13.5 percent) and Florida (+13.5 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in July.
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to July 2013) was -17.6 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -12.9 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-43 percent), Florida (-37.4 percent), Arizona (-32.5 percent), Rhode Island (-29.7 percent) and Michigan (-27.7 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 99 were showing year-over-year increases in July, equaling the measure in June 2013.

*June data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

July HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

CBSA

July 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by CBSA

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

22.6%

20.1%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

22.5%

21.1%

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

18.1%

15.7%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

15.6%

13.7%

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

11.1%

11.9%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

10.0%

10.7%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

9.1%

9.0%

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL

8.6%

10.7%

New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ

7.8%

8.2%

Philadelphia, PA

4.3%

4.8%

Source: CoreLogic.

July National and State HPI (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

State

July 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by State

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

National

12.4%

11.4%

Nevada

27.0%

24.2%

California

23.2%

20.2%

Arizona

17.0%

14.9%

Wyoming

16.4%

9.8%

Oregon

15.0%

13.0%

Idaho

14.2%

12.5%

Georgia

14.1%

12.3%

Utah

13.2%

13.5%

Florida

12.6%

13.5%

Washington

12.4%

12.7%

Massachusetts

11.9%

9.2%

Michigan

11.5%

10.5%

Montana

11.4%

8.3%

North Dakota

10.6%

6.4%

Hawaii

10.4%

8.8%

Colorado

9.6%

8.7%

District of Columbia

9.5%

9.2%

South Dakota

9.4%

8.3%

Texas

9.1%

10.0%

New York

8.5%

8.6%

South Carolina

8.1%

8.2%

Virginia

7.8%

7.4%

Minnesota

7.8%

7.3%

Maryland

7.1%

8.5%

Tennessee

6.5%

7.3%

New Hampshire

6.5%

5.5%

Illinois

6.0%

8.2%

North Carolina

6.0%

7.6%

Missouri

5.5%

5.8%

Rhode Island

5.1%

5.7%

Alaska

4.9%

6.5%

Louisiana

4.3%

5.3%

Indiana

4.3%

5.5%

Kansas

4.2%

7.5%

New Jersey

4.1%

4.5%

Connecticut

4.0%

5.6%

Wisconsin

3.9%

4.1%

Oklahoma

3.8%

4.1%

Pennsylvania

3.7%

4.4%

Ohio

3.7%

5.8%

Arkansas

3.6%

5.1%

Nebraska

3.5%

3.2%

Maine

3.5%

2.9%

Iowa

3.0%

3.4%

West Virginia

2.9%

5.2%

Kentucky

2.6%

3.8%

Mississippi

2.2%

3.9%

Alabama

2.0%

3.7%

Vermont

1.4%

3.6%

New Mexico

0.0%

2.8%

Delaware

-1.3%

1.5%

Source: CoreLogic.

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