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In its forecast for September year over year home prices, CoreLogic is ignoring predictions for a slowing down of the recovery with the end of the 2013 home buying season and predicts a 12.7 percent price hike in September after reporting August prices reached 12.4 percent.

CoreLogic Sees Even Higher Prices in September

In its forecast for September year over year home prices, CoreLogic is ignoring predictions for a slowing down of the recovery with the end of the 2013 home buying season and predicts a 12.7 percent price hike in September after reporting August prices reached 12.4 percent.

If the September forecast proves true, September will be the 18th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.2 percent in August 2013 compared to August 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013*.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that September 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2012 and rise by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis from August 2013. Excluding distressed sales, September 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year over year from September 2012 and by 0.7 percent month over month from August 2013. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“Home price gains were negligible month over month in August-an expected decrease in the pace of appreciation as housing enters the off-season,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While prices increased more than 12 percent on a year-over-year basis, the month-to-month change is more telling of this year’s late summer trend.”

“After a strong run, the rate of home price appreciation slowed in August. In addition to normal seasonality, the recent sharp rise in mortgage rates off their historic lows was a clear driver behind the slowdown,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We anticipate moderate gains in home prices over the balance of this year, supported by the recent downward trend in rates and continued tight supplies of homes in many markets.”

Highlights as of August 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+25.9 percent), California (+23.1 percent), Arizona (+16.4 percent), Wyoming (+15 percent) and Georgia (+14.8 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in the month of August.
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+23.4 percent), California (+19.8 percent), Arizona (+14 percent), Utah (+13.7 percent) and Florida (+13.5 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in the month of August.
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to August 2013) was -17.1 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -12.6 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-41.9 percent), Florida (-37.2 percent), Arizona (-32 percent), Rhode Island (-29.1 percent) and Michigan (-25.7 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 99 were showing year-over-year increases in August, equaling the measure in July 2013, the one CBSA that did not experience a gain was Akron, OH (-0.3 percent).

*July data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

HOME PRICE INDEX ACTIVITY

August HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

CBSA

August 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by CBSA

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

23.4%

22.3%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

22.5%

19.5%

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ

17.9%

15.0%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

16.9%

14.2%

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

11.3%

12.2%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

10.2%

10.6%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

9.0%

8.7%

New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ

8.8%

9.1%

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL

7.8%

10.3%

Philadelphia, PA

4.4%

4.8%

Source: CoreLogic.

August National and State HPI (Ranked by Single-Family Including Distressed):

State

August 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by State

Single-Family Including Distressed

Single-Family Excluding Distressed

National

12.4%

11.2%

Nevada

25.9%

23.3%

California

23.1%

19.8%

Arizona

16.4%

14.0%

Wyoming

15.0%

8.3%

Georgia

14.8%

12.5%

Oregon

14.0%

12.2%

Hawaii

13.8%

12.2%

Idaho

13.2%

12.5%

Florida

12.7%

13.5%

Washington

12.5%

12.5%

Massachusetts

12.4%

10.2%

Michigan

12.3%

12.1%

Utah

12.3%

13.7%

North Dakota

11.0%

7.0%

Colorado

9.6%

8.8%

South Dakota

9.6%

9.7%

New York

9.6%

10.0%

Texas

9.1%

9.9%

Montana

8.3%

5.8%

Minnesota

8.1%

7.9%

South Carolina

8.1%

7.7%

District of Columbia

7.8%

7.8%

Virginia

7.6%

7.2%

Missouri

7.5%

7.7%

Maryland

7.0%

7.6%

Tennessee

6.7%

7.1%

Illinois

6.5%

7.8%

North Carolina

5.7%

7.3%

Alaska

5.6%

6.3%

New Hampshire

5.1%

4.1%

New Jersey

5.0%

5.2%

Nebraska

4.8%

4.6%

Rhode Island

4.8%

5.5%

Indiana

4.7%

5.7%

Maine

4.3%

0.7%

Kansas

4.3%

7.2%

Louisiana

4.3%

4.8%

Wisconsin

4.2%

4.5%

Mississippi

4.1%

4.6%

Pennsylvania

4.1%

4.8%

Connecticut

3.7%

5.7%

Oklahoma

3.6%

4.0%

Alabama

3.5%

5.0%

Iowa

3.4%

3.8%

Ohio

3.4%

5.2%

Arkansas

2.8%

4.2%

Kentucky

2.7%

4.0%

West Virginia

2.6%

5.6%

Delaware

2.5%

5.2%

Vermont

2.1%

2.6%

New Mexico

1.5%

3.7%

Source: CoreLogic.

Table 1

Table 2

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPITM incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,935 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 642 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,226 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Media contact:

Andrea Hurst
ahurst@cvic.com
(405) 487.7721
Lori Guyton
lguyton@cvic.com
(901) 277.6066

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