October witnessed solid price increases, steady inventory and strong demand continuing well into the fall, according to Realtor.com’s data
Median list prices were relatively unaffected by the usual seasonal patterns with a strong 7.57 percent increase year over year. National inventory is stabilizing after the dramatic declines seen earlier this year, although the country still is experiencing significant supply shortages. Most notably, median age of inventory – a leading indicator of demand – is down 11.32 percent year over year, demonstrating resilience to seasonal changes and stabilized inventory.
“Instead of the usual seasonal slowdown, October data show the 2013 fall market moving at a fast pace,” said Errol Samuelson, president of realtor.com®. “Inventory has returned to last year’s levels, but prices continue to strengthen and homes are moving significantly faster compared to this time last year.”
“This demonstrates that the overall strength of the national housing market is determined partly by inventory availability,” said National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “We expect rising home price conditions to continue through the balance of the year.”
Key Market Indicators for October 2013
|October 2013||Year-over-Year Percentage Change||Month-over-Month Percentage Change|
|Number of Listings||1,905,064||-1.51 percent||-0.71 percent|
|Median Age of Inventory||94 days||-11.32 percent||1.08 percent|
|Median List Price||$199,000||7.57 percent||-0.25 percent|
- Inventories are now just 1.51 percent lower than they were one year ago-a dramatic turnaround compared to the substantial year-on-year declines noted at beginning of this year, which signals steadying inventory conditions.
- Median age of inventory is down 11.32 percent year over year and rose slightly on a monthly basis from 93 to 94 days. This suggests that properties continue to turn over quickly in contrast to the usual seasonal patterns, and despite increasing prices and stabilizing inventory.
- Median list prices are 7.57 percent higher than where they were one year ago. On a month-over-month basis, prices fell slightly in October but remained resilient against the usual seasonal patterns and stabilizing inventory.
Local Market Highlights:
- Markets with the strongest demand. Of particular note in October’s figures are the markets with the fastest turnover, some at roughly half of the national median “days on market” figure of 94 days, and Oakland remains the national leader at just 30 days – approximately one-third of the national median. While October’s leaderboard is a continuation of September’s fastest moving markets, these are beginning to show an easing that tracks with the national month-over-month trend; only Washington, DC has shortened its age of inventory from September, and the rest have increased time on market, while Phoenix remained flat.
Median Age of Inventory
10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the Shortest Median Days on Market
|San Francisco, CA||48|
|San Jose, CA||48|
- Widespread median list price increases. The majority of housing markets are registering positive signs, with 85 percent of the 146 markets covered by realtor.com® showing year-over year increases in median list price, and just 19 markets registering year-over-year price declines in October. Detroit continues to lead the country in year-over-year list price increases, followed by markets in California and Nevada.
- Local market inventories shift – decreases steady and increases are on the rise. The number of markets where inventories were down by 5 percent or more on a year-over-year basis continued its steady decline, dropping from 102 markets in June to 65 markets in October. At the same time, inventory grew in more than twice the number of markets in October (49) compared to June (22), and the number of markets with inventories that are up by at least 5 percent over the year rose from 15 markets in June to 30 markets in October.
Realtor.com® regularly tracks real estate data and develops monthly reports featuring the number of listings, median age of inventory and median list price across the U.S. and in specific markets, as well as provides year-over-year and month-over-month changes. These reports are the only ones pulled directly from the realtor.com® database, where 90 percent of listings are updated every 15 minutes from more than 800 MLSs. National data in October reflects an adjustment in inventory of approximately 1 percent compared to previous months, reflecting an update in four southern California markets identified by realtor.com’s® enhanced auditing protocols and attributed to a system change in data collection earlier in the year. We regularly review and update historical data to provide the most accurate and comprehensive market information available. For more information on Move, please visit www.move.com or one of its many online real estate properties including realtor.com®.