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CoreLogic: 21 States are Reaching Price Peaks

CoreLogic: 21 States are Reaching Price Peaks

Nearly half the nation’s states plus the District of Columbia have reached their price peaks from the housing boom or are within 10 percent of doing so, CoreLogic reported today.

“On a year-over-year basis, home prices have appreciated every month in 2013. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia are now at or within 10 percent of their peaks,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The outlook for 2014 looks a bit less robust as regulatory complexities and tight credit can be expected to cool the housing market.”

The CoreLogic Pending Home Price Index indicates that December 2013 home prices are expected to dip 0.1 percent month over month from November to December 2013, with a projected increase of 11.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2012. Excluding distressed sales, December 2013 home prices are poised to rise 0.2 percent month over month from November 2013 and 10.6 percent year over year from December 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“The housing market paused as expected in November for the holiday season with very low month-over-month appreciation. Year-over-year home prices are up an impressive 11.8 percent,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Our pending HPI projects that home prices will grow by 11.5 percent for the full year 2013. That will make 2013 the best year for home-price appreciation since 2005.”

Year over year, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 11.8 percent in November 2013 compared to November 2012. This change represents the 21st consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 0.1 percent in November 2013 compared to October 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.3 percent month over month in November 2013 compared to October 2013. On a year-over-year basis, home prices, excluding distressed sales, increased by 10.4 percent in November 2013 compared to November 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.

Highlights as of November 2013:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+25.3 percent), California (+21.3 percent), Michigan (+14.4 percent), Arizona (+13.5 percent) and Georgia (+13.3 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the only state to show depreciation was Arkansas (-1.1 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Nevada (+21 percent), California (+17.6 percent), Idaho (+12.4 percent), Florida (+12.4 percent) and Arizona (+11.7 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in November.
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2013) was -17.6 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.3 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-40.5 percent), Florida (-37.3 percent), Arizona (-31.4 percent), Rhode Island (-29.4 percent) and Illinois (-24.5 percent).
  • 96 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas** (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in November 2013.
November HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

CBSA

November 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by CBSA

Single Family Including Distressed

Single Family Excluding Distressed

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

23.2%

20.3%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

20.7%

17.8%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

15.7%

13.4%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

14.7%

12.6%

Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL

12.4%

12.1%

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

10.7%

11.0%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

10.0%

10.2%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

9.3%

8.9%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

7.6%

8.0%

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ

7.4%

7.9%

Source: CoreLogic.

November National and State HPI (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

State

November 2013 12-Month HPI

Change by State

Single Family Including Distressed

Single Family Excluding Distressed

National

11.8%

10.4%

Nevada

25.3%

21.0%

California

21.3%

17.6%

Michigan

14.4%

10.6%

Arizona

13.5%

11.7%

Georgia

13.3%

11.5%

Oregon

13.1%

11.4%

Idaho

12.6%

12.4%

Florida

12.0%

12.4%

Washington

11.1%

11.5%

Wyoming

11.0%

4.0%

Utah

10.6%

11.0%

New York

10.5%

10.8%

Hawaii

10.1%

8.3%

Massachusetts

9.5%

10.4%

Illinois

9.4%

9.0%

Texas

8.7%

9.2%

Minnesota

8.6%

8.8%

Colorado

8.6%

7.8%

South Carolina

8.2%

8.1%

Maine

8.1%

4.7%

Rhode Island

7.8%

7.5%

Montana

7.7%

8.1%

District of Columbia

7.5%

6.7%

Missouri

7.1%

5.7%

South Dakota

6.9%

7.5%

Maryland

6.0%

7.0%

Virginia

6.0%

6.8%

New Jersey

5.6%

5.8%

North Carolina

5.4%

6.8%

Tennessee

5.3%

5.7%

Delaware

5.2%

4.5%

New Hampshire

5.0%

4.8%

Alaska

4.9%

4.8%

North Dakota

4.1%

4.0%

West Virginia

4.0%

6.6%

Nebraska

3.7%

3.6%

Indiana

3.6%

3.8%

Iowa

3.4%

4.4%

Pennsylvania

3.4%

3.8%

Kansas

3.2%

7.3%

Louisiana

2.8%

5.1%

Connecticut

2.8%

3.3%

Ohio

2.7%

3.9%

Alabama

2.7%

7.1%

Wisconsin

2.5%

3.7%

Oklahoma

2.2%

4.0%

Vermont

1.4%

1.4%

Kentucky

0.8%

2.7%

Mississippi

0.7%

3.4%

New Mexico

0.3%

3.5%

Arkansas

-1.1%

2.5%

Source: CoreLogic.

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Table 1

Table 2

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPITM incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,966 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 636 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,229 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Media contact:

Andrea Hurst
ahurst@cvic.com
(405) 487.7721
Lori Guyton
lguyton@cvic.com
(901) 277.6066

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