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Case-Shiller: Dallas, Chicago Broke Records in November

Case-Shiller: Dallas, Chicago Broke Records in November

Data through November 2013 showed that the 10-City and 20-City Case-Shiller Composites increased 13.8% and 13.7% year-over-year. Dallas posted its highest annual return of 9.9% since its inception in 2000. Chicago also stood out with an annual rate of 11.0%, its highest since December 1988.

For the month of November, the two Composites declined 0.1%. After nine consecutive months of gains, this marks the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities recorded positive monthly returns; of these nine, Boston and Cleveland were the only cities not in the Sun Belt. Minneapolis and San Diego remained relatively flat. After declining last month, Dallas edged up to set a new index high. Denver is 0.6% off of its highest level due to two consecutive months of declines.

In November 2013, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual increases of 13.8% and 13.7%.

“November was a good month for home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Despite the slight decline, the 10-City and 20-City Composites showed their best November performance since 2005. Prices typically weaken as we move closer to the winter. Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix stand out as they have posted 20 or more consecutive monthly gains.

“Beginning June 2012, we saw a steady rise in year-over-year increases. November continued that trend with another strong month although the rate of increase slowed. Looking at the year-over-year returns, the Sun Belt continues to push ahead with Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa taking eight of the top nine spots. Detroit continues to recover but remains the only city with prices below its 2000 level.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. Combined with low inflation — 1.5% in 2013 – home owners are enjoying real appreciation and rising equity values. While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year.”

As of November 2013, average home prices across the United States are back to their mid-2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 20%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 23.0% and 23.7% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.

Nine cities showed price increases from October to November. Miami took the lead with a gain of 1.4% and Las Vegas, the previous leader, followed at +0.6%. Chicago experienced the largest decline of 1.2%. Nine MSAs showed acceleration as measured by their monthly returns – Boston, Cleveland and San Francisco showed returns that were over 50 basis points higher in November compared to October. Last month after experiencing its first decline in 19 months, San Francisco rebounded to positive territory with a 0.4% gain in November. Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa are the only cities that recorded positive gains for 12 or more consecutive months.

Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Tampa and Washington were the nine cities to accelerate on an annual basis. Boston showed an annual rate of 9.8%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from last month. Cleveland and New York followed with November year-over-year returns of 6.0% compared to 4.9% for October. Despite the improvement, Cleveland and New York remain the two lowest ranked cities.

More than 26 years of history for these data series are available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market may also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

The table below summarizes the results for November 2013. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

November 2013

November/October

October/September

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

1-Year Change (%)

Atlanta

113.37

-0.3%

-0.2%

18.5%

Boston

168.78

0.2%

-0.4%

9.8%

Charlotte

124.83

-0.6%

0.6%

8.7%

Chicago

125.87

-1.2%

-0.5%

11.0%

Cleveland

106.91

0.3%

-0.2%

6.0%

Dallas

132.58

0.1%

-0.1%

9.9%

Denver

146.45

-0.2%

-0.4%

8.9%

Detroit

94.70

-0.1%

0.9%

17.3%

Las Vegas

128.00

0.6%

1.2%

27.3%

Los Angeles

214.79

0.1%

0.9%

21.6%

Miami

176.02

1.4%

1.1%

16.5%

Minneapolis

139.05

0.0%

0.5%

10.5%

New York

172.54

-0.4%

0.0%

6.0%

Phoenix

144.86

0.3%

0.9%

16.7%

Portland

159.92

-0.3%

0.2%

12.5%

San Diego

194.15

0.0%

0.3%

18.7%

San Francisco

180.19

0.4%

-0.2%

23.2%

Seattle

160.17

-0.1%

-0.3%

12.4%

Tampa

154.70

0.2%

0.1%

15.7%

Washington

203.71

-0.3%

-0.4%

7.8%

Composite-10

180.15

-0.1%

0.2%

13.8%

Composite-20

165.80

-0.1%

0.2%

13.7%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2013

 

Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.A summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data can be found in the table below.

November/October Change (%)

October/September Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

-0.3%

1.6%

-0.2%

1.9%

Boston

0.2%

1.3%

-0.4%

0.9%

Charlotte

-0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

1.2%

Chicago

-1.2%

0.8%

-0.5%

0.8%

Cleveland

0.3%

1.2%

-0.2%

0.8%

Dallas

0.1%

1.0%

-0.1%

1.0%

Denver

-0.2%

0.5%

-0.4%

0.3%

Detroit

-0.1%

1.3%

0.9%

1.9%

Las Vegas

0.6%

1.2%

1.2%

1.0%

Los Angeles

0.1%

0.8%

0.9%

1.5%

Miami

1.4%

1.6%

1.1%

1.8%

Minneapolis

0.0%

0.8%

0.5%

1.6%

New York

-0.4%

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

Phoenix

0.3%

0.4%

0.9%

1.1%

Portland

-0.3%

0.7%

0.2%

0.5%

San Diego

0.0%

0.7%

0.3%

0.6%

San Francisco

0.4%

1.3%

-0.2%

0.7%

Seattle

-0.1%

0.4%

-0.3%

0.4%

Tampa

0.2%

1.1%

0.1%

0.9%

Washington

-0.3%

0.7%

-0.4%

0.6%

Composite-10

-0.1%

0.9%

0.2%

1.0%

Composite-20

-0.1%

0.9%

0.2%

1.1%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through November 2013

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