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February Prices: CoreLogic ups the Ante

February Prices: CoreLogic ups the Ante

Despite slow sales and paralyzing storms in much of the nation, February year over year prices rose to 12.2 percent, an increase of two points over January and monthly prices rose 0.8 percent, CoreLogic reported today.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, rose 12.2 percent in February 2014 compared to February 2013, the 24th month of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 0.8 percent in February 2014 compared to January 2014, according to the February CoreLogic Home Price Index report.

Moreover, price increases are forecast to continue.  Home prices are projected to increase 0.5 percent month over month from February 2014 to March 2014 and prices, including distressed sales, are expected to increase 10.5 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are poised to rise 0.4 percent month over month from February 2014 to March 2014 and 9.3 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014. The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices by the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

At the state level, including distressed sales, 14 states showed double-digit year-over-year growth in February; and Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas and the District of Columbia all reached new home price highs. Additionally, 22 states were at or within 10 percent of their price peaks.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 10.7 percent in February 2014 compared to February 2013 and 0.9 percent month over month compared to January 2014. Also, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation when distressed sales were excluded. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

Beginning with the February 2014 HPI report, CoreLogic is introducing a new forecast metric that provides an advanced indication of trends in home prices. Individual forecasts, making up the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™, provide forward-looking insight among the various categories of the CoreLogic HPI. Including distressed sales, “As the spring home-buying season kicks off, house price appreciation continues to be strong,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although prices should remain strong in the near term due to a short supply of homes on the market, price increases should moderate over the next year as home equity releases pent-up supply.”

“February marks two straight years of year-over-year gains in national prices across the United States,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The consistent upward movement in home prices should ultimately prove to be an important stimulant for higher levels of sustained market activity and growth in the housing economy.”

Highlights as of February 2014:

•            Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+19.8 percent), Nevada (+18.5 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Oregon (+13.8 percent) and Michigan (+13.5 percent).

•            Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+15.9 percent), Nevada (+14.6 percent), Florida (+13.1 percent), Washington (+11.5 percent and Hawaii (+11.5 percent).

•            Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to February 2014) was -16.9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -12.1 percent.

•            Including or excluding distressed sales, no state posted home price depreciation in February 2014.

•            The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-39.9 percent), Florida (-36.4 percent), Rhode Island (-30.9 percent), Arizona (-30.5 percent) and West Virginia (-26.6 percent).

•            Ninety-six of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in February 2014. The four CBSAs that did not show an increase were Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark., Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis., Rochester, N.Y. and Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

*January data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

February HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

CBSA     February 2014 12-Month HPI

Change by CBSA

Single Family Including Distressed           Single Family Excluding Distressed

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA   22.2%   18.8%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA    18.8%   15.3%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA         16.7%   12.7%

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX             13.6%   12.0%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ     12.5%   10.7%

Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL              11.8%   12.4%

Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX  11.3%   9.8%

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ            9.5%      9.9%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI         8.9%      9.5%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV          8.1%      7.3%

 

February National and State HPI (Ranked by Single Family, Including Distressed):

State     February 2014 12-Month HPI

Change by State,    Single Family Including Distressed     Single Family Excluding Distressed

National             12.2%   10.7%

California           19.8%   15.9%

Nevada 18.5%   14.6%

Georgia 14.2%   10.6%

Oregon 13.8%   10.9%

Michigan            13.5%   9.3%

Hawaii  12.8%   11.5%

Arizona 12.5%   11.0%

Florida  12.3%   13.1%

Washington       11.8%   11.5%

New York           10.6%   10.8%

Wyoming           10.2%   6.3%

Texas                  10.2%   8.9%

Illinois                10.0%   10.1%

South Carolina  10.0%   10.6%

Idaho    9.9%      9.7%

Utah      9.6%      10.4%

Maine   9.2%      8.5%

Colorado            8.7%      7.1%

Minnesota         8.6%      9.0%

District of Columbia       8.4%      7.4%

Massachusetts  8.3%      7.8%

North Dakota    8.2%      7.7%

Montana            8.1%      9.1%

North Carolina  8.0%      8.8%

Tennessee         7.9%      7.6%

Missouri             7.8%      6.8%

New Jersey        7.3%      7.4%

Alabama             7.0%      8.6%

Maryland           6.7%      6.2%

Delaware           6.7%      9.8%

West Virginia     6.6%      6.8%

Rhode Island     6.4%      4.1%

Connecticut       6.2%      7.8%

New Hampshire    6.2%      5.3%

Ohio                       6.1%      5.7%

Vermont             5.8%      5.8%

Virginia 5.4%      6.5%

Indiana 5.0%      6.1%

Kansas  4.9%      5.0%

Nebraska            4.7%      4.0%

Louisiana            4.5%      5.3%

Alaska   3.9%      4.1%

Pennsylvania     3.8%      5.0%

South Dakota    3.5%      4.6%

New Mexico      2.7%      3.9%

Mississippi         2.3%      2.0%

Iowa                     1.9%      3.4%

Oklahoma          1.2%      3.5%

Wisconsin          0.9%      4.1%

Arkansas            0.5%      5.0%

Kentucky            0.4%      3.2%

Source: CoreLogic.

 

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