HomeInsurance.com found that homeowners are paying, on average, 19 percent more per year for new homeowners insurance policies than they were at the beginning of the year. Twelve-month home insurance premiums for policies written in December 2011 were $810 nationwide, a $128 increase from January 2011 at $682. HomeInsurance.com’s data represents approximately 15,000 policies sold across the United States with such top-rated carriers as Travelers, Safeco, The Hartford, and ASI/Ark Royal.

Some state premium increases were much higher than the national average. New policies in December 2011 were carrying roughly 29-39 percent higher premiums than those sold a year earlier in Mississippi, Montana and New Mexico.

With the overwhelming increases in 2011, there were some bright spots where policyholders saw lower rates towards the end of 2011 such as Washington D.C., where homeowners were paying about 7 percent less for new policies. Likewise, new policies sold in December 2011 in Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and California decreased in price as compared to earlier in the year when they were 1 to 3 percent higher.

“Rate fluctuations are normal and can be caused by a variety of factors,” said Carlos Lagomarsino, founder of HomeInsurance.com. “The best thing homeowners can do is to comparison shop and ask their agents to qualify them for all eligible discounts, such as a home-auto package, which can provide substantial savings.”

The HomeInsurance.com RateReport is released quarterly and shows average premiums paid by homeowners across the United States for home and auto insurance.

The uptick in seller confidence recorded by two recent surveys comes as concern is growing that seller withdrawal from the market is creating record low inventories that are limiting buyer choice and curtailing sales in the middle of the spring buying season (see Buyers Walk the Walk.). Last week the National Association of Realtors reported total housing inventory at the end of March declined 1.3 percent to 2.37 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Listed inventory is 21.8 percent below a year ago.

In Fannie Mae’s Monthly National Housing Survey released this morning the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell increased from 10 percent for the fourth straight month to 15 percent; not exactly a band wagon but a trend in the right direction.

“This month’s survey shows a continued gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and outlook for home prices,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “After flatlining at depressed levels for over a year, a growing share of consumers indicate that it is a good time to sell, suggesting rising optimism for the housing market.”

A second report, conducted April 15-16 by Rasmussen Reports, found that nearly one-in-five (18 percent) of American adults say now is a good time for someone in their area to sell their house, up six points from a month ago. Some 63 percent disagreed.

Changing attitudes among sellers are clearly linked to price expectations. On average, Americans expect home prices to increase 1.3 percent over the next twelve months in the Fannie Mae survey (the highest value yet recorded). Thirty-two percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, a slight decline from the sharp spike last month. In turn, confidence in the economy’s direction rose to a survey all-time high in April (hitting 37 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from last month). In the Fannie Mae survey, the percentage of Americans who say it is a good time to buy decreased by 2 percentage points to 71 percent.

NAR reported Friday that existing home sales are down 2.1 percent from last month, not necessarily a big deal until you realize those are March numbers when sales are supposed to rise. Prices, however, are not doing what is expected of them. The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey says they are falling just when optimists had hoped spring sales would boost the housing economy into the black and begin the long awaited recovery. NAR had March prices up 2.5 percent over a year ago.

According to the Campbell survey, home prices for non-distressed properties fell 5.7 percent from March 2011 to March 2012. Prices for damaged REOs fell 5.7 percent and for move-in ready REOs, prices fell 2.5 percent during the same one-year period. And for short sales, prices fell 14.3 percent, year-over-year. The total share of distressed properties in the housing market in March, as represented by the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index (DPI), was 47.7 percent, using a three-month moving average. This was the 25th month in a row that the DPI has been above 40 percent. .

Both NAR and the Campbell survey report that the buyers are pounding the pavement and looking at houses. NAR’s monthly survey of Realtors found foot traffic up from 38 to 58 percent since the first of the year and the Campbell survey’s traffic indicies for current homeowners and investors last month were even higher than those recorded when the federal homebuyer’s tax credit was offered in 2009 and 2010.

Yet they’re not buying. NAR’s Lawrence Yun blames the low inventory. “We were expecting a seasonal increase in home listings, but a lack of inventory has suddenly become an issue in several markets with not enough homes for sale in relation to buyer interest,” Yun said. “Home sales could be held back because of supply factors and not by demand - we’re already seeing this in the Western states and in South Florida.”

Listed inventory is 21.8 percent below a year ago. HousingPulse found that real estate agents reported housing inventories well below levels seen a year ago, with an especially acute shortage of attractive properties in good locations. HousingPulse found that real estate agents reported housing inventories well below levels seen a year ago, with an especially acute shortage of attractive properties in good locations.

With nearly half of the market being distressed, we’re a long way from a return to a normal market,” said Thomas Popik, research director at Campbell Surveys. “Agents responding to our survey say that homeowners with well-maintained properties in good locations are very reluctant to list at today’s prices. That’s why inventory is low-and also why forced REO and short sales are such a big proportion of the remaining market.

So, inventories are low because sellers don’t want to list their homes when prices are so low. Low inventories are supposed to be a good thing because they strengthen prices. Instead, they are driving away demand because buyers don’t see anything they like. Also, as chary sellers pull out of the market, distress sales acquire too large a market share. Falling sales and too many distress sales combine to lower prices even more. So more sellers flee, inventories shrink even more, more buyers walk, sales fall more the distress sale market share gets even bigger, prices fall even farther. Go figure.

However, over the past several years, lenders have been raising down payment requirements. In 2011, median down payments for conventional loans were approximately 22 percent, according to Zillow. That percentage doubled in three years and represents the highest median down payment since the data were first tracked in 1997.

Both these surveys show higher down payment costs than NAR’s 2011 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, which is based n part on 2010 transactions. For both conventional and FHA loans, which require only a 3.5 percent down payment, NAR reported the median down payment for all buyers was 11 percent in 2010-2011. First time buyers put about 5 percent down in 2011. Repeat buyers, pooling equity with savings, typically put down about 15 percent. However, investment and vacation-home buyers have been paying higher down payments than those buying a primary residence. The median down payment for both was 27 percent, according to NAR’s Profile of Investment and Vacation Buyers.

In January, Lending Tree reported that states with the highest median down payments were Washington, D.C. (13.5 percent), New York (13.47 percent), Hawaii (13.33 percent) and California (13.22 percent). The state with the lowest average down payment is North Dakota, where buyers put down an average of 11.34 percent.

Attention has focused on down payments in recent months for two reasons. Down payments are a major barrier to first-time buyers, whose market share has dwindled since the home buyer tax credits expired in 2010. A survey of buyers by Move, Inc. last fall found that half of all potential buyers planning to buy in two years or more are waiting in part because they lack the money for a down payment or closing costs.

A second focus has been a proposed regulation called QRM that would create incentives for lenders to offer loans at 20 percent or more. The regulation, being reviewed by regulators, is opposed by many housing, consumer and minority groups concerned that it would put homeownership out of reach of many American families.

Year-over-year numbers in Clear Capital’s latest showed weaker performance for the nation and the regions than expected but nationally Dr. Alex Villacorta, Clear Capital’s Director of Research and Analytics, forecasts the rest of 2012 will show mild increases building up to a stronger 1.2 percent increase by year end.

“With the exception of the Midwest, positive growth in rolling quarter-over-quarter prices is an encouraging sign that markets are rebounding from the winter slow down earlier than usual,” said Villacorta. “Even with the relatively modest declines seen over the last few months, markets have continued to show signs of bottoming out. The projections we made at the beginning of the year are playing out and we expect to see the nation gain just over 1% through the year’s end.

The nation held fast over the most recent quarter, and for the fifth time in six months, saw price changes of less than 1 percent. While the US lost -0.2% quarter-over-quarter, this decline is milder than last month’s decline of -0.6 percent. This positive trend may be attributed to the beginning of spring after a very mild winter, resulting in the start of an early buying season.

However, the embattled Midwest region is a different story. The region, hit hard over the past three months, continued sliding this month losing -2.4 percent, and was the only region to post losses in the quarter or mark any quarterly price movement more than 2 percent. This result shows how the stability seen by the rest of the nation has yet to embrace the region.

For the second month in a row there have been increases in REO saturation for the nation and the regions, helping to confirm speculation the Attorneys General settlement has empowered the affected servicers to become more aggressive in moving their REO backlog onto the housing market.

In March, the national REO rate went up 1.2 points since last month and 1.8 points over the past quarter to hit 27 percent, pointing to an acceleration of REO sales. The Midwest contributed the most to the increase, jumping 3.8 points over the quarter to 34.3 percent, with the other regions all seeing softer increases.

“We are continuing to see, overall short term home value strength against the rising REO saturation.” Villacorta added. “This is an indication of market stability, and bodes well for the continued growth we’re expecting over the rest of the year.”

Of particular interest this month is how these changes in REO saturation are affecting prices. In the past, there has been a consistent inverse relationship between changes in REO saturation and prices, but not this month. The nation and all regions saw increases in REO saturation over the most recent quarter, but changes in prices over the same period were positive for the West, Northeast, and South, describing an unexpected direct relationship. The US and Midwest’s changes in prices over the same period were downward, describing the expected inverse relationship.

The geographies with direct relationships show a pricing resilience to REO saturation that has not been seen in previous HDI analysis. It could be powered by improvement in the jobs numbers recently, rapidly increasing investor activity in certain regions, and the general increase in consumer confidence.

Over the past 12 months, investors’ market increased 64.5 percent, from 749,000 homes and a 17 percent market share in 2010. By contrast, owner-occupied purchases fell 15.5 percent to 2.78 million and vacation or second home purchases increased rose 7.0 percent to 502,000 in 2011 from 469,000 in 2010, According to the National Association of Realtors.

The median investment-home price was $100,000 in 2011, up 6.4 percent from $94,000 in 2010, while the median vacation-home price was $121,300, down 19.1 percent from $150,000 in 2010.

Investment-home buyers in 2011 had a median age of 50, earned $86,100 and bought a home that was relatively close to their primary residence - a median distance of 25 miles, although 30 percent were more than 100 miles away.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said investors with cash took advantage of market conditions in 2011. “During the past year investors have been swooping into the market to take advantage of bargain home prices,” he said. “Rising rental income easily beat cash sitting in banks as an added inducement. In addition, 41 percent of investment buyers purchased more than one property.”

Yun said the shift in investment buyer patterns in 2011 shows the market, for the large part, is able to absorb foreclosures hitting the market. “Small-time investors are helping the market heal since REO (bank real estate owned) inventory is not lingering for an extended period. Any government program to sell REO inventory in bulk to large institutional companies should be limited to small geographic areas. Even where alternatives are needed, it’s best to rely on the expertise of local businesses, nonprofit organizations and government,” he said.

All-cash purchases have become fairly common in the investment- and vacation-home market during recent years: 49 percent of investment buyers paid cash in 2011, as did 42 percent of vacation-home buyers. Half of all investment home purchases in 2011 were distressed homes, as were 39 percent of vacation homes.

“Clearly we’re looking at investors with financial resources who see real estate as a good investment and who aren’t hesitant to use cash,” Yun said. Of buyers who financed their purchase with a mortgage, large down payments were typical. The median down payment for both investment buyers in 2011 was 27 percent.

“The share of investment buyers who flipped property remained low in 2011, and many of those homes likely were renovated before reselling,” Yun said. Five percent of homes purchased by investment buyers last year have already been resold, up from 2 percent in 2010. The typical investment buyer plans to hold the property for a median of 5 years, down from 10 years for buyers in 2010.

The typical vacation-home buyer was 50 years old, had a median household income of $88,600 and purchased a property that was a median distance of 305 miles from the primary residence; 35 percent of vacation homes were within 100 miles and 37 percent were more than 500 miles. Buyers plan to own their recreational property for a median of 10 years.

Lifestyle factors have consistently been the primary motivation for vacation-home buyers, while the desire for rental income drives investment purchases. Vacation homes purchased last year were more likely to be in suburban or rural areas; investment homes were concentrated in suburban locations.

Eighty-two percent of vacation-home buyers said the primary reason for buying was to use the property themselves for vacations, or as a family retreat. Thirty percent plan to use the property as a primary residence in the future, and only 22 percent plan to rent to others.

Half of investment buyers said they purchased primarily to generate rental income, and 34 percent wanted to diversify their investments or saw a good investment opportunity. Forty-four percent of investment properties were in the South, 23 percent in the West, 17 percent in the Midwest and 15 percent in the Northeast.

NAR’s analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data shows there are 42.8 million investment units in the U.S., compared with 75.3 million owner-occupied homes.

In fact, the majority of women (62 percent) and men (61 percent) participating in a new Coldwell Banker survey released this week said that they know within the first visit if the home is right for them.

Square-footage and price are important when selecting a home but couples also rely on how they feel and how their lifestyle fits into a home when looking for a place to live “When two people are looking for a home together, there are many considerations to take into account. Of course, price and layout matter, but ‘feeling at home’ is an important factor,” said Jessica Edwards, Coldwell Banker Real Estate consumer specialist and a Coldwell Banker Realtor.

The findings underscored the importance of staging a home for sale and “depersonalizing” it so that buyers can easily see themselves living there, said Ms. Edwards. She said that price bracket makes no difference and preparing a house properly for sale can pay off in a reduced time on market.

Her views echo a February Coldwell Banker survey of CB professionals Some 94 percent said their sellers are getting rid of clutter and making cosmetic updates, such as fresh paint and minor repairs and 78 percent agree clients are willing to “de-personalize” the home.

The survey of owners also found that over half of women (54 percent) say that they take the lead when it comes to decorating. However, younger men play a larger role in décor decisions than their older counterparts. Forty-eight (48) percent of younger respondents, age 18-44, say decorating is mutual; this decreases to 36 percent for respondents 55 and over.

Sharing financial decisions may get easier over time. Fifty-four (54) percent of people age 18-44 say major financial decisions are mutual, compared to 60 percent of those 45-54. This increases to 70 percent for people 55 and over.

Men are more likely to control the family purse strings today than three years ago. Some 30 percent of men said they make major financial decisions compared to 18 percent of women. In a similar Coldwell Banker survey in 2009, 26 percent of men made the family’s financial decisions compared to 20 percent of women.

For couples entering the home-buying process, here are Edwards’ tips for harmonious house-hunting:

• Each person should come up with a list of a few things that are most important and then come together as a couple to decide on a list of the top three to five things that are important for the home.
• When looking for a home, communication is key. Consider designating a point person for different aspects of the home-buying process, so that information is not delayed or communicated to just one part of the couple.
• Don’t get too many people involved; typically more people means more stress and what is most important is that the couple is happy with the decisions being made.

That’s because the WMM Auction Index, a monthly measure of prices from auctions conducted in 20 metro markets by the leading auction house Williams, Williams & McKissick, has consistently foretold market shifts in the S&P Case/Shiller 20 market composite since it was launched in 2007.

Case-Shiller’s January numbers were dramatically down yesterday, falling to levels 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent below those of year ago and 0.8 percent in the month of January. Last October, however, the auction index started to rise and in January the WWM Auction Index was up 1.7 percent above December.

“We lead Case-Shiller by about 90 days because of the speed with which auctions take place,” said Fontana Fitzwilson, the company’s SVP of Business Intelligence and Analytics. She’s right. An analysis of the index of auction transactions-the company averages 10 to 15,000 transactions a month-shows Case-Shiller uncannily shadowing WMM’s price swings by 60 to 90 days.

The 2009 tax credit price boost, for example showed up in March in the WMM Index but Case-Shiller didn’t see it until July. The price crash that followed the end of the credit bottomed in December 2009 on the WMM Index but Case-Shiller didn’t bottom until February 2010. The double dip in prices recorded by Case-Shiller in the fourth quarter of 2010 and early 2011 showed up in the WWM Index the previous July.

Homes to be included in an auction are marketed 30 days in advance of the auction, giving prospective buyers time to check them out. After the auction, they close in 30 days. Average time in inventory for a Realtor.com listing, by contrast, is currently 111 days and closing time can take 3 months or more. Case-Shiller relies on public records for its data, which can take even longer to be posted.

“S&P Case-Shiller and WWM Auction Indices have displayed consistent market fluctuations. Despite these consistencies, a critical difference is the Auction Index provides more real-time data, as the index tracks timely and consistently with S&P 500 trading performance. Therefore, if previous correlations between the indices continue as expected, similar Auction Index trends are expected to appear in the Case-Shiller index in the coming months,” states the company’s Web site. The WMM Auction Index is released on the tenth of every month.

As a result of reduced foreclosure activity and positive sales of eight straight months above the previous year, inventory continued a downward trend for the 20thstraight month, 22.4 percent lower than the housing inventory in February 2011.

Consumer sentiment appears to be rising, and record low mortgage rates coupled with favorable home prices are attracting homebuyers and investors who don’t want to miss a historic opportunity.

“All the data is pointing to a very active spring and summer selling season this year, which is great news for a recovering housing market,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “As sales numbers have trended higher for several months, we have been anticipating a turnaround in home prices, and it looks like it’s finally starting.”

Rising optimism over homeownership may in part account for the improving sales picture, according to a a new national survey showing that Americans are significantly more optimistic about homeownership than they were a year ago. According to the second-annual Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey, a full 60 percent of Americans have favorable views toward the real estate market. That’s up 8 percentage points since last year.

Some 70 percent of respondents have some degree of confidence that property values will improve over the next two years; 63 percent believe that real estate is a good investment despite the recent market volatility; up 11 points from last year. Eight in 10 respondents said homeownership is very important to them; only 15 percent said the economic downturn made homeownership less important.

“Respondents told us what our sales professionals see every day that, despite recent market volatility, homeownership remains integral to the dreams of most Americans and that consumers’ confidence in the housing market is returning,” said Earl Lee, president, Prudential Real Estate. “This is good news for home buyers and sellers, communities and our economy as a whole. As more people look to take advantage of historic interest rates and prices, we believe the foundation for a sustainable recovery is in sight.”

Among the generations, 94 percent of respondents believe that finding the right home and community are crucial to helping their family be happy. Only a small minority of older Americans said the recent housing crisis made homeownership less important to them. Nearly half of Gen Y respondents said it made homeownership more important. Gen Y’ers are particularly optimistic about the road ahead with 72% expressing favorable views about the residential real estate market.

“Characteristically, many of these consumers, particularly Gen Y, share a firm sense of family and community,” Lee said. “It’s not surprising now that they’re embracing homeownership to build on that sense.”

Fannie Mae’s February National Housing Survey found that Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months, which is down slightly from last month, but 28 percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, while 15 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 1 percentage point since last month). Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same.

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose by 3 percentage points to 13 percent, the highest level in over a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy dropped 1 percentage point to 70 percent this month. Sixty-five percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up 1 percentage point since last month, while 29 percent say they would rent, down 1 percentage point versus last month.

On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, a slight increase since January.

Forty-five percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a 2 percentage point increase from last month, while 3 percent expect them to go down, a 2 percentage point decrease from last month and the lowest value in over a year.

Americans’ concerns about key economic and housing issues are beginning to subside, according to results from. Consumers’ attitudes have stabilized across most indicators - including personal finances, housing, and employment - demonstrating their sense that downside risks have abated somewhat compared to late summer and fall of 2011. While Americans’ confidence in the direction of the economy has been the most pronounced (35 percent think that the economy is on the right track, up 19 percentage points since November, and 57 percent think the economy is on the wrong track, down 18 percentage points since November), their confidence about personal financial situations, household income, and household expenses, as well as attitudes about homeownership and renting is holding at steady levels. At the same time, Americans’ concern about losing their job in the next 12 months has stabilized since the late fall, with 76 percent of Americans saying they are not concerned in February 2012, compared to 70 percent in November 2011.

“The pickup in the pace of hiring over the past few months has helped soothe consumer concerns, lifting their moods regarding their personal finances, the direction of the economy, and their views on the housing market,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “As a result, we’ve seen more potential for economic upside, creating a more balanced near-term outlook.”

An even brighter picture was painted by the fourth annual Cotton Report from Cotton & Company, a Stuart, FL real estate marketing company.

The Cotton Report found that 46 percent of respondents and 53 percent of those with household incomes over $100,000 believe we have reached the bottom of the market. Fifty-four percent of prospective buyers are considering primary residences as opposed to vacation homes or investment properties, an increase from 38 percent a year ago.

“For those who have been waiting to make their move, trying to time the bottom of the market, they may have already missed it,” said Stephann Cotton, President and Founder of Cotton & Company. “2011 saw rapid absorption of distressed inventory in major markets like Miami and San Diego. The Cotton Report’s market data supports this growing perception, with a steady reduction in the number of investors actively in the market and fewer buyers expecting for further price reductions.”