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	<title>RealEstateEconomyWatch.com &#187; Housing Crisis</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/category/housing-crisis/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com</link>
	<description>Insight and Intelligence on Residential Real Estate</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:54:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>January Prices Continue to Slide</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/january-prices-continue-to-slide/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/january-prices-continue-to-slide/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:52:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Housing Crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4614</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Home prices are continuing their slide into the new year as January home prices fell to 2.6 percent below where they were a year ago, a decline from December, when prices were 2.1 percent below December 2010.</p>
<p>Data provider Clear Capital today reported that national home prices bucked three months of stability and posted a loss of 1.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, more than a full percentage point in lost value compared to last month&#8217;s decrease of 0.4 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the nation lost a more significant 2.6 percent, due in part to market seasonality and an increase of REO sales as a percentage of total home sales, from 24.8 percent at the end of 2011 to 25.4% at the end of January.</p>
<p>Regionally, the Midwest lost 4 percent quarter-over-quarter, leading the nation in quarterly losses for the first time in seven months.   The Midwest saw the most significant change in overall performance of any region. These shorter term declines pulled down its year-over-year returns to -5.2 percent, a marked increase from the softer 3 percent loss reported last month. This drop in values can be partly attributed to a 1.5 percent uptick in REO saturation over the past quarter from 29.5 percent to 31 percent.</p>
<p>&#8220;Looking at the latest data through January, home prices remained relatively unchanged with the exception of the Midwest,&#8221; said Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. &#8220;Although prices at the national level continue to slide due to pressure from the Midwest, the lower priced segments of several specific markets are bucking the trend and seeing appreciation, suggesting that recoveries could be occurring from the bottom up.</p>
<p>&#8220;When we look at the strength in the bottom tier of prices, the volatility within the metro markets, the rapid changes in direction with certain regions, and relative stability in others, these factors underscore the economic and market fragility that remains a dark cloud over housing prices.&#8221;</p>
<p>The West, South and Northeast regions were relatively calm, with quarter-over-quarter declines of less than 1 percent.</p>
<p>The Northeast region remained essentially flat over last month&#8217;s report with a very mild quarterly loss of 0.7 percent, and year-over-year growth of 0.1 percent. This region has been resilient over time with relative stability in year-over-year and quarterly numbers, but also boasts overall losses of just 22.5 percent since the height of that market&#8217;s value in 2006, as compared to the national average of 40.5 percent in losses since the nation&#8217;s peak.</p>
<p>The Southern and Western regions posted similar and mild price changes quarter-over-quarter, with 0.9 percent losses each and price decreases of 1.8 percent and 3.5 percent respectively year-over-year.</p>
<p>After consistent weakness throughout 2011, the West reduced its year-over-year losses by nearly a full percent when compared to last month&#8217;s results of -4.4 percent. This change can be partly attributed to decrease in REO sales from 38 percent in the first quarter of 2011, to a healthier 31 percent today.</p>
<p>Micro-markets showed high degrees of variability and softening due in part to seasonality and local differences in REO saturation.</p>
<p>Quarter-over-quarter gains for the top performers are narrow and aligned with last month.</p>
<p>Birmingham-Hoover takes the lead on quarterly gains, with 4.3 percent growth, replicating its performance of last month.</p>
<p>Phoenix sits in a very respectable second place with quarterly gains of 3.2%, and advances to 4th place in year-over-year performance.</p>
<p>All of the top performing MSAs avoided quarterly losses this month; however a third of these markets posted mild quarter-over-quarter gains of less than 1%, and only three gained more than 2%. This month&#8217;s leaders are showing growth consistent with the past two months, topping out in the mid 4% range.</p>
<p>The Birmingham-Hoover MSA in Alabama took the lead this month with 4.3 percent growth quarter-over-quarter. This market is also showing marked improvement in its year-over-year performance, improving from losses of 11.1 percent year-over-year in last month&#8217;s report to just 2.2 percent this month. The drivers for this market&#8217;s strong performance include significant gains in its low tier segments (homes worth $63,000 and less), distressed asset sale prices, and a reduction in REO saturation to 32 percent from a high of 40 percent in 2011.</p>
<p>Phoenix is also on the move with 3.2 percent quarterly gains, and a 4.5 percent increase in prices year-over-year. Similar to Birmingham, the Phoenix market has shown signs of a recovery starting with the low tier segment (homes worth $82,000 and less), in price increases for distressed sales, and a deep reduction in REO saturation rate of over 15% since the start of 2011 to a still high, but more reasonable 32 percent. However, Phoenix has experienced severe declines since the market peak of over 61 percent and has a lot of ground to make up.</p>
<p>Double-digit price drops are back for this group, as losses have not been this severe since May of 2011.  Detroit was hit with quarterly price drop of 15.5 percent and an increase in distressed sales.  Dayton shows high volatility, and shifts from the best quarterly performer last month to a drop of 4.5 percenbt this month.</p>
<p>This month&#8217;s low performing MSAs showed clear weakness as compared to the same group last month, with all metros posting losses greater than 1.5 percent, and 60 percent with losses of more than 3 percent quarter-over-quarter. On a yearly basis, a full 13 of these 15 markets are showing losses greater than 3 percent, with an average REO saturation rate of 28.5 percent.</p>
<p>The Detroit MSA was pummeled this month with quarter-over-quarter losses of 15.5 percent, and over twice the amount of depreciation than second place Milwaukee. Detroit&#8217;s total losses since the peak of the market are a staggering 77 percent, so this month&#8217;s results are painful for an already troubled market. Detroit also experienced a 9.7 percent increase in REO sales over last quarter to a staggering 51.8 percent. Although prices are still 10.8 percent above their lowest point in 2009, the domination of REO sales in the Detroit MSA signals values will continue to face an uphill battle.</p>
<p>The Dayton MSA lost a bit of prominence this month, losing 4.5 percent of its value quarter-over-quarter, and moving from one of the highest performing metros last month to the sixth lowest this month. This market also saw a 2 percent jump in its REO saturation up to 32 percent overall, well above the national average. This volatility is not unusual for Dayton, having experienced value swings of more than 5 percent in 10 out of the last 17 quarters. But despite the rapid drop, Dayton is experiencing some strength in its low priced segment of homes (under $36,000), as they have seen an uptick of 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter, and 6.6 percent year-over-year.</p>
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		<title>Foreclosures Dragged Down 2011 Prices to a 4.7 Percent Loss</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/foreclosures-dragged-down-2011-prices-to-a-47-percent-loss/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/foreclosures-dragged-down-2011-prices-to-a-47-percent-loss/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 20:26:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosure Situation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Housing Markets]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Market Activity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4608</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Home prices in the U.S. decreased 4.7 percent in 2011, achieving the fifth consecutive annual loss after prices fell five straight months in a row in the second half of the year.</p>
<p>Without distressed sales, prices would have fallen only 0.9 percent in 2011, an indication of the impact of distressed sales on home prices in 2011 according to CoreLogic, a leading provider of information, analytics and business services.</p>
<p>In December, home prices decreased 1.4 percent on a month-over-month but  excluding distressed sales, prices would have posted their posted its first month-over-month gain since July 2011, rising 0.2 percent. The December drop in home prices follows a decline of 4.3 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010.  Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 2 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.</p>
<p>&#8220;While overall prices declined by almost 5 percent in 2011, non-distressed prices showed only a small decrease. Until distressed sales in the market recede, we will see continued downward pressure on prices,&#8221; said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.</p>
<p>Highlights as of December 2011</p>
<ul>
<li> Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Montana (+4.4 percent), Vermont (+4.0 percent), South Dakota (+3.1 percent), Nebraska (+2.5 percent) and New York (+1.7 percent).</li>
<li> Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Illinois (-11.3 percent), Nevada (-10.6 percent), Georgia (-8.3 percent), Ohio (-7.7 percent), and Minnesota (-7.5 percent).</li>
<li> Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Montana (+7.7 percent), South Dakota (+3.5 percent), Indiana (+3.3 percent), Alaska (+3.1 percent), and Massachusetts (+2.9 percent).</li>
<li> Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-9.7 percent), Minnesota (-5.2 percent), Arizona (-4.9 percent), Delaware (-4.2 percent) and Michigan (-3.5 percent).</li>
<li> Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to December 2011) was -33.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -24.0 percent.</li>
<li> The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-60.0 percent), Arizona (-51.9 percent), Florida (-50 percent), Michigan (-43.7 percent), and California (-43.5 percent).</li>
<li> Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 81 are showing year-over-year declines in December, one more than in November.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Bulk Sales of GSE Foreclosures Begin</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/4604/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/02/4604/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:34:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crisis Programs]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Housing Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4604</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p align="center">
<p>The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today invited investors interested in purchasing pools of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA foreclosures in the nations hardest-hit metropolitan areas with the requirement they rent them for a period of year to pre-qualify.</p>
<p>The new bulk sales program, under discussion since August, will begin with a pilot program where Fannie Mae will offer for sale pools of various types of assets including rental properties, vacant properties and non-performing loans with a focus on the hardest-hit areas. The first transaction will be announced in the near-term.</p>
<p>The purpose of the pilot phase will be to examine investor interest in various types of assets, including the location, size, and composition of pools of assets; the ways in which investors maximize the participation of experienced local firms and organizations that can provide the types of services and support needed to ensure community stabilization; the types of structures and/or financing that improve returns to the sellers as well as home values in impacted markets; and the process by which investors are qualified to and ultimately participate in the sales transactions.</p>
<p>FHFA said today it is also looking at ways to improve REO sales to homeowners and small investors, enhancing the existing retail sales strategy at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both companies sell the majority of their REO properties to owner-occupants at close to market value.</p>
<p>&#8220;This is an important step toward increasing private investment in foreclosed properties to maximize value and stabilize communities,&#8221; said FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco. &#8220;I am grateful for the collaborative effort by the many stakeholders including investors, nonprofit organizations, and state and local government officials, who have worked together on this Initiative.&#8221;</p>
<p>FHFA reportedly may include as many as 500 to 1000 in the first pool of the pilot phase.  The GSEs have more than one million properties in their foreclosure pipelines.</p>
<p>Although the FHFA has not set a timetable for beginning bulk REO sales, government officials speaking on background with Inman News columnist Ken Harney said they may launch the program with a sale of 500 to 1,000 homes as early as this month.</p>
<p>The announcement by FHFA came just hours before President Obama was scheduled to make a major speech on housing policy.</p>
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		<title>Mortgage Originations Decline 10 Percent but Quality Soars</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/mortgage-originations-decline-10-percent-but-quality-soars/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/mortgage-originations-decline-10-percent-but-quality-soars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:46:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>editor</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosure Situation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Market Trends]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4589</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mortgage originations plunged 10.1 percent from November to December, continuing a decline from 2011&#8217;s September peak. At the same time, loans originated over the last two years have proved to be some of the best quality originations on record.</p>
<p>New originations ended the year down 29.3 percent from 2010, lower than since 2007, and December activity was down 2.7 percent from December 2010.  Through November, originations totaled about 5.6 million, down 1 million from 2010, according to the December Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services today.</p>
<p>Mortgages originated in 2010-11 have 90-day default rates that were lower than any vintage since 2005, before the housing crash and the implementation of tighter underwriting standards.  Ninety day default rates are highest for loans originated in 2006, immediately before lending standards were tightened, and are lowest for loans originate in 2010 and 2011.</p>
<p>December origination data also shows that recent prepayment activity - a key indicator of mortgage refinances - has remained strong, with 2008-09 originations, high credit score borrowers and government-backed loans having benefited the most from recent, historically low interest rates.</p>
<p>Foreclosure starts plummeted in 2011, nearly 40 percent below 2010 for the year as a whole and down 3.7 percent from November to December.</p>
<p>LPS found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more than two years. Foreclosure inventories in judicial states are two anmd a half times those in non-judicial states, and the gap continues to widen.  Foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states stood at approximately four times that of judicial foreclosure states in December.</p>
<p>However, pipeline ratios (the time it would take to clear through the inventory of loans either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure at the current rate of foreclosure sales) have declined significantly in judicial states from earlier this year.</p>
<p>Other findings from the LPS report:</p>
<p>Total U.S. loan delinquency rate:  8.15 percent</p>
<p>Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:  0.0 percent</p>
<p>Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:    4.11 percent</p>
<p>Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: -1.3 percent</p>
<p>States with highest percentage of non-current* loans:  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL</p>
<p>States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: MT, WY, SD, AK, ND</p>
<p>*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.</p>
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		<title>Obama HARP Expansion  Builds on New Refi Momentum</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/obama-harp-expansion-builds-on-new-refi-momentum/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/obama-harp-expansion-builds-on-new-refi-momentum/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:45:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crisis Programs]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Housing Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4580</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In his State of the Union speech last night, President Obama announced he will push for legislation that will significantly expand the newly revised HARP program that allows underwater homeowners who are to refinance at today&#8217;s historically low rates.</p>
<p>Obama&#8217;s expansion would allow all borrowers, not just those whose loans are held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance.  Fannie and Freddie hold about 60 percent of the nation&#8217;s mortgages.  The New York Times quotes a &#8220;senior government official&#8221; who estimated that the program could benefit two million to three million homeowners who have loans that are not guaranteed by the government, and that the program&#8217;s cost would not exceed $10 billion.  When announced last September, the revised Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP 2.0) was projected to help one million homeowners.</p>
<p>The President&#8217;s announcement comes after the HARP 2.0 program has been in effect only seven weeks.  Initial reports suggested that key lenders-including certain megabanks-have been slow to implement changes to service borrowers applying for the program and they are also facing capacity constraints due to the ongoing mini-refinancing boom.  Final rules were not announced until Novembers and reportedly many consumers and servicers were confused about whether they qualified and how to apply.</p>
<p>Concerns have been growing that the program would fall short of its million loan goal.  The program is due to expire at the end of this year.  Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke has suggested that the program be changed to mandate lenders to write down principal as well as interest .  Others are recommending additional changes to reduce refinancing fees and &#8220;put-back&#8221; risk on the loans. Meanwhile, California Democrats in Congress are calling on President Obama to replace Federal Housing Finance Agency acting director Edward DeMarco, who has opposed writing down the principal of mortgages held by Fannie and Freddie.</p>
<p>However, recent reports suggest that interest is picking up.   One source reports that 70 percent of the new loan applications at a major bank are HARP 2.0 loans.  The HARP 1.0 program allowed borrowers to refinance up to 125% of the current value of the home but the HARP 2.0 will do away with that 125 percent limit.</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m sending  this Congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates. No more red tape,&#8221; said President Obama last night.  The program would be paid for by a new fee on banks, but details have yet to be announced and until they are, the outlook in Congress is difficult to forecast.</p>
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		<title>Mortgage Approvals Handicap Buyers</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/mortgage-approvals-handicap-buyers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/mortgage-approvals-handicap-buyers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 21:24:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>editor</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosure Situation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Investment Watch]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4575</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In another sign that buyers are having an increasingly difficult time getting mortgage financing, nearly one out of three home sales in December went to buyers paid all cash.</p>
<p>In fact, so many investors are winning sales with cash and shorter closing timelines that they can offer lower bids, which may be may be depressing  prices, especially on distressed sales, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.</p>
<p>In December the overall proportion of cash buyers in the housing market surged to a record 33.2 percent, up from 29.6 percent a year earlier.  Some 74 percent of investors used all cash to buy homes last month. Investors accounted for 22.8 percent of home purchases in December 2011, up from 22.2 percent a month earlier.</p>
<p>The combination of all cash and shorter closing timelines convinced many sellers to accept lower bids.  The survey found that cash buyers are able to bid significantly lower - and successfully - on many properties because they offer a shorter and more reliable closing timeline. This is particularly true for bids on distressed properties, because mortgage servicers selling foreclosed properties or real estate owned generally prefer transactions that can settle within 30 days.</p>
<p>The total share of distressed properties in the housing market in December, as represented by the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index (DPI), continued at a high level of 47.2 percent, using a three month moving average. This is the 24th month in a row that the DPI has been above 40 percent.</p>
<p>While investor bids may not be the first offers accepted, they often end up winning properties after other homebuyers are eliminated because of mortgage approval or timeline problems. Appraisals below the contracted price are a common reason for mortgage denials. Most mortgage financing timelines are now in excess of 30 days.</p>
<p>Real estate agents responding to the survey commented on low bids from investors. &#8220;Investors usually offer 10 percent-20 percent below list up to a price of $250K. First time homebuyers are (offering) close to list (price) as are current homeowners. Investors want 2-4 weeks to close &#8230;Financing buyers end up with 6- 8 weeks plus to close,&#8221; reported an agent in Arizona.</p>
<p>&#8220;Investors are very aggressive and expect to see 15 percent-20 percent off list, they will close in 30 days or less and most are cash buyers. First time homebuyers are in a market that sometimes sell for over list price which is difficult &#8216;at first&#8217; for them to understand,&#8221; reinforced another agent in California.</p>
<p>&#8220;In competitive offer situations, cash offers prevail for the most part because of the common knowledge of lender closing issues. Cash sales close in 21-30 days. FHA sales close in 45 to 60 days,&#8221; reported an agent in New Jersey.</p>
<p>The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey involves approximately 2,500 real estate agents nationwide each month and provides up-to-date intelligence on home sales and mortgage usage patterns.</p>
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		<title>Thirty-somethings Got Socked on Homeownership</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/thirty-somethings-got-socked-on-homeownership/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/thirty-somethings-got-socked-on-homeownership/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jan 2012 14:59:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Trends]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crisis Watch]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4560</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Americans in their thirties have seen their homeownership rates decline more over the past decade than either younger or older owners.</p>
<p>Homeownership rates for the nation as a whole fell from a high of 69 percent in 2007 to 66 percent today.  (Each percentage point represents 1.4 million households).  Among Americans under 25, homeownership actually increased slightly, from 21.9 in 2000 to 23.5 percent in 2011, and homeownership among those over 65 also increased, from 80.3 percent to 81.1 percent over the 11 year period, according to a recent analysis by economists at the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<p>Forty-somethings and those in their late twenties lost about four percentage points in their homeownership rates.</p>
<p>However, those in their thirties have lost about seven percentage points from the peak in 2005 to 2011.  Those ages 35 to 39 saw their homeownership rate fall from a peak of 66.6 percent in 2005 to 59.4 percent in 2011; for those 30 to 35, homeownership declined from a peak of 56.8 percent to 49.9 percent last year.</p>
<p>&#8220;It is also this group where there is potential for re-entering into the homeownership market in the near future,&#8221; said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.</p>
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		<title>Outlook 2012: Ingo Winzer Sees Tale of Two Cities</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/outlook-2012-ingo-winzer-sees-tale-of-two-cities/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/outlook-2012-ingo-winzer-sees-tale-of-two-cities/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Jan 2012 13:40:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Forecasts]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosure Situation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Market Analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4552</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This year will be a tale of two cities.  Local employment created by economic growth will drive housing market recoveries, and those markets that create more jobs will see property values and rents improve faster than others that don&#8217;t.</p>
<p>In some markets with high foreclosure saturation rates, foreclosure inventories will cause temporarily price swings as inventories rise and fall, but even in these cities, in the long run, local economies will be the key.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s how Ingo Winzer sees the year ahead.   In 1990 Winzer created Local Market Monitor because there wasn&#8217;t anything like it and developed of the National Review of Real Estate Markets, which analyzed conditions in 100 US Markets using such economic data as home values, employment growth, and population growth.  More recently he created Equilibrium Home Prices, which have proved valuable in assessing real estate market risk during the last two economic cycles.  He&#8217;s more interested in what makes local markets tick than broad national forecasts that may be irrelevant to local professionals, consumers and investors.</p>
<p>&#8220;The evidence is now pretty clear that a sustained economic recovery is underway, although housing markets won&#8217;t feel much benefit until next year. Consumers are in no particular hurry to buy a house because they don&#8217;t see home prices going up. Homeowners - as opposed to investors - would rather wait to pay a higher price than admit to their friends that they bought too soon. NO market has yet seen an increase in prices,&#8221; Winzer said in his January economic outlook.</p>
<p>&#8220;Local price increases of 6 percent are going to be difficult, but 3 to 4 percent are more likely.  Some markets, like Atlanta, that are struggling with employment are going to have a hard time while others will do markedly better,&#8221; he told Real Estate Economy Watch.</p>
<p>Local Market Monitor is popular with investors who rent out their holdings because of its local data and forecasts on rents.  Noting that more people today want to rent than buy, Winzer believes that many retirement and second home markets that have been flooded with foreclosures are going to take a long time&#8211;ten years or more-for prices to recover.</p>
<p>&#8220;In other markets where investors are active like Miami it&#8217;s not so bad because there is great demand,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Housing markets are going to continue to improve with job growth, even at just 2 percent a year, and economic growth will determine rental increases as well as home values.  Overall rents are going to reflect population flows.  &#8220;In a recession people tend to sit still.  When things pick up, people are more willing to move to where there are jobs,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>For long term investors, however, projecting rental cash flow ten or twenty years down the road is difficult even at the local level because of the sensitivity of rents to local economic conditions.</p>
<p>&#8220;My advice to the long term investor is to reduce risk by buying a more expensive property in a desirable neighborhood where you will be able to charge a premium rent.  In lower cost properties, rents may become comparable to the monthly costs of owning a home.  Renters in a lower cost property are more likely to buy than those in a higher cost property,&#8221; he advised.</p>
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		<title>2011 Foreclosures Fell to Four-year Low; Nevada at a Standstill</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/2011-foreclosures-fell-to-four-year-low-nevada-at-a-standstill/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/2011-foreclosures-fell-to-four-year-low-nevada-at-a-standstill/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jan 2012 13:20:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crisis Watch]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Foreclosure Situation]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Housing Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4549</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Foreclosure activity and the national foreclosure rate last year both fell to their lowest annual level since 2007 and a new state law has brought foreclosure starts and sales to a virtual standstill in the state of Nevada, which has led the nation in foreclosures for the past five years.</p>
<p>Last year the total number of properties affected by foreclosure filings fell 34 percent year-over-year.  Foreclosure activity in 2011 was 33 percent below the total in 2009 and 19 percent below the 2008 total, according to RealtyTrac&#8217;s year-end report.</p>
<p>At the same time, the average processing timeline for foreclosures grew to 348 Nationwide and over 800 days in judicial states like New York, New Jersey and Florida.  State laws, regulations and lender procedures put in place following the 2010 robo-signing scandal account in part for the delays.</p>
<p>Separately, ForeclosureRadar reported today that Nevada&#8217;s new foreclosure law, which caused foreclosure starts to plummet in October, is now impacting foreclosure sales as well.  &#8220;Nevada&#8217;s new foreclosure rules appear on track to bring a near complete halt to foreclosures in that state,&#8221; said Sean O&#8217;Toole, CEO of ForeclosureRadar.</p>
<p>The national foreclosure rate fell to 1.45 percent of U.S. housing units (one in 69) that had at least one foreclosure filing during the year, down from 2.23 percent in 2010, 2.21 percent in 2009, and 1.84 percent in 2008.</p>
<p>&#8220;Foreclosures were in full delay mode in 2011, resulting in a dramatic drop in foreclosure activity for the year,&#8221; said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. &#8220;The lack of clarity regarding many of the documentation and legal issues plaguing the foreclosure industry means that we are continuing to see a highly dysfunctional foreclosure process that is inefficiently dealing with delinquent mortgages - particularly in states with a judicial foreclosure process.</p>
<p>&#8220;There were strong signs in the second half of 2011 that lenders are finally beginning to push through some of the delayed foreclosures in select local markets. We expect that trend to continue this year, boosting foreclosure activity for 2012 higher than it was in 2011, though still below the peak of 2010.&#8221;</p>
<p>December activity hit a 49-month low, scheduled auctions up in fourth quarter.  Foreclosure filings were reported on 205,024 U.S. properties in December, a decrease of 9 percent from the previous month and down 20 percent from December 2010. December&#8217;s total of filings was the lowest since November 2007 - a 49-month low.  December Default notices (NOD, LIS) decreased 19 percent from the previous month and were down 23 percent from December 2010; Scheduled foreclosure auctions (NTS, NFS) decreased 12 percent from the previous month and were down 24 percent from December 2010; and bank repossessions (REO) increased 10 percent from the previous month but were still down 12 percent from December 2010.</p>
<p>Foreclosure filings were reported on 586,133 U.S. properties in the fourth quarter, a 4 percent decrease from the previous quarter and down 27 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010. Fourth quarter default notices were down 6 percent from the previous quarter and down 22 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010; scheduled foreclosure auctions increased 4 percent from the previous quarter but were still down 32 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010; and REOs decreased 11 percent from the previous quarter and were down 24 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010.</p>
<p>Nevada, Arizona, California post top state foreclosure rates for year  More than 6 percent of Nevada housing units (one in 16) had at least one foreclosure filing in 2011, giving it the nation&#8217;s highest state foreclosure rate for the fifth consecutive year despite a 31 percent decrease in foreclosure activity from 2010. Nevada foreclosure activity dropped 35 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.  Despite a 28 percent drop in foreclosure activity from November to December - caused largely by a 41 percent drop in scheduled foreclosure auctions - Arizona registered the nation&#8217;s second highest state foreclosure rate for the third year in a row, with 4.14 percent of its housing units (one in 24) with at least one foreclosure filing in 2011.</p>
<p>California also experienced a substantial month-over-month drop in initial foreclosure notices in December - default notices there were down 38 percent from the previous month - but the state still registered the nation&#8217;s third highest foreclosure rate for all of 2011. One in every 31 California housing units (3.19 percent) had at least one foreclosure filing during the year, down from 4.08 percent in 2010 and 4.75 percent in 2009.</p>
<p>Georgia posted the nation&#8217;s fourth highest state foreclosure rate, with 2.71 percent of housing units (one in 37) with at least one foreclosure filing in 2011, and Utah posted the nation&#8217;s fifth highest state foreclosure rate, with 2.32 percent of its housing units (one in 43) with a foreclosure filing during the year.</p>
<p>Other states with 2011 foreclosure rates ranking among the nation&#8217;s 10 highest were Michigan (2.21 percent), Florida (2.06 percent), Illinois (1.95 percent), Colorado (1.78 percent), and Idaho (1.77 percent).</p>
<p>U.S. properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter took an average of 348 days to complete the foreclosure process, up from 336 days in the third quarter and up from 305 days in the fourth quarter of 2010. The length of the average foreclosure process has increased 24 percent from 281 days in the third quarter of 2010, when lenders began to re-evaluate foreclosure procedures in earnest as the result of the so-called robo-signing controversy.</p>
<p>The average foreclosure process in New York has increased 37 percent during the same time period, and New York properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter took an average of 1,019 days to complete the foreclosure process - the longest of any state.  New Jersey had the nation&#8217;s second longest average foreclosure process, at 964 days, and Florida the nation&#8217;s third longest average foreclosure process, at 806 days. Foreclosure activity in both these states dropped more than 60 percent from 2010 to 2011. All three states with the longest foreclosure timelines employ the judicial foreclosure process.</p>
<p>Texas continued to register the shortest average foreclosure process of any state, at 90 days - still an increase from 86 days in the third quarter and from 81 days in the fourth quarter of 2010. Other states with average foreclosure process among the nation&#8217;s shortest in the fourth quarter were Delaware (106 days), Kentucky (108 days), Virginia (132 days), and Louisiana (134 days).</p>
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		<title>Outlook 2012: Total Mortgage’s John Walsh Sees Hope in National Loan Limits</title>
		<link>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/outlook-2012-total-mortgage%e2%80%99s-john-walsh-sees-hope-in-national-loan-limits/</link>
		<comments>http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2012/01/outlook-2012-total-mortgage%e2%80%99s-john-walsh-sees-hope-in-national-loan-limits/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2012 22:47:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Steve Cook</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Beyond Today's News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Crisis Watch]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Housing Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=4538</guid>
		
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John Walsh, CEO of Total Mortgage Services in Milford CT, is an entrepreneur who has built his mortgage company into a 25-state powerhouse that is continuing to expand.  He is a forward thinker, and maybe a bit of a contrarian, who entered wholesale banking last year, with his wholesale channel TMS Funding, when the too-big-to-fail banks like Bank of America pulled out.  But he must be onto something, as Total Mortgage has never had to repurchase one of its loans.  In addition Walsh is an outspoken advocate for mortgage finance at a time when many lenders are putting their money elsewhere.</p>
<p>Yet he&#8217;s frustrated by what he sees in the year to come.  At the top of his list of concerns is negative equity.</p>
<p>With nearly one out of four homeowners with a mortgage underwater today- he&#8217;s frustrated.  It&#8217;s virtually the same percentage as four years ago and Walsh thinks that the government needs to enact policies that would support the stagnant purchase market.  Federal efforts, such as HARP 2.0, mostly aim to encourage refinancing.  He feels we need a more comprehensive solution to our housing woes.  The problem is so big and complex that it has defied the best efforts of the federal government and the nation&#8217;s financial sector.</p>
<p>Walsh also stated that if the European debt crisis is solved we could see interest rates rise very quickly and he holds little hope for progress during this election year in reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Furthermore, he&#8217;s concerned about the slow purchase mortgage market, which probably won&#8217;t improve until the employment picture improves significantly.</p>
<p>However, there&#8217;s one step the government could take that would cost virtually nothing and reduce the costs of buying a home for thousands.  He&#8217;d like to see the government raise Fannie, Freddie and FHA loan limits to $729,750 for all markets, not just high-priced ones.</p>
<p>&#8220;Why should the higher limits be limited to a few areas?  Higher loan limits would make tens of thousands of homes eligible for FHA and GSE financing.  It would save GSE and FHA borrowers a lot of money via refinancing and would boost the purchase market, with FHA borrowers able to purchase homes with down payments starting at 3.5%.  &#8220;The trickle-down effect of these additional purchase transactions would help stabilize the housing market and would benefit the overall economy&#8221; he said.</p>
<p><em>In the Outlook 2012 series, leaders in real estate and mortgage finance share their views on the year to come.</em></p>
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