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Housing Forecasts

Is the Recovery Coming to a Screeching Halt?

halt

  After slowly winding down over the summer months, the third and fourth quarter data now being released shows that price appreciation is no longer slowing.  It is now within inches of a total screeching halt that could presage a shift in the recovery’s momentum as real estate markets don their pajamas for the winter hibernation. The September 2014 index ... Read More »

Freddie Mac: Get Ready for 5% Rates in 2015

mortgage on

    Rates on a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage will hit 5 percent by the end of next year, according to the latest forecast from Freddie Mac’s economists.  Expect to see interest rates climb throughout 2015, with yields on the 10-year Treasury averaging about 2.9 percentage points, up from about 2.6 percentage points in 2014, and rates on the 30-year ... Read More »

CoreLogic: Healthy or Wealthy?

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  Through August, CoreLogic figures that national median home prices have risen 17.5 percent during a 20 month run that’s now tapering off.  According to the October 2014 CoreLogic HPI™, in 2013 alone, national home prices rose by more than 11 percent. By August, national home prices had risen another 6.5 percent year-to-date. Wealthy is not necessarily healthy when it ... Read More »

College Towns Get an A for Appreciation

college town

Colleges and universities are having an effect on housing across the country. Metros with noteworthy university influence are at the top of their class, with home price trends far outperforming national rates of growth since 2004, according to data provider Clear Capital. A sample of ten metros, each having a university presence, shows an average growth of 32 percent since ... Read More »

Auction.com’s “Nowcast” uses Market Data for Forecasts

crystal ball

By combining industry data, proprietary company transactional data and publicly available Google Trends data, Auction.com has launched a new report called “Nowcast” to predict home sales as they are occurring. Findings from the first Auction.com Nowcast predict that existing home sales in October will fall between seasonally adjusted averages of 4.967 and 5.380 million annual sales, with a targeted prediction ... Read More »

Tight Credit Chokes Pending Sales

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Pending home sales rose slightly in September and are now above year-over-year levels for the first time in 11 months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.  But NAR’s monthly pending sales repot disappointed observers and underscored the problems facing the housing sector The pending home sales index increased 0.3% after dropping 1% in August, the National Association of Realtors ... Read More »

Wells Circles the Wagons

Wells

Growing concern over the faltering housing recovery has inspired an unusual vote of confidence for housing’s fundamentals from two of Wells Fargo’s top economists. In a “special commentary” published in the bank’s web site, senior economists Mark Vitner and Anika R. Khan argue that too much progress has been made restoring growth to the overall economy for the recovery to ... Read More »

CoreLogic Stays Bullish

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While slack demand is causing others to slice their price forecasts for next six to 12 months, CoreLogic reports August prices are up 6.4 percent year-over-year and it predicts by next August, prices will rise an additional 5.2 percent. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.2 percent month over month from August ... Read More »

Fannie Sees Sunshine

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Fannie Mae’s monthly consumer survey found that most consumers surveyed believe prices will rise by 2.2 percent over the next year even though they are falling now and fewer than half think mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months even though rates today are near historic lows. Moreover, in September, the share of consumers who say now ... Read More »

Prices Fall with Consumer Sentiment

row houses

September home price data marks the 11th straight month of moderating gains. Nationally, yearly gains decreased from a high of 11.7percent in October 2013 to just 7.8percent through September 2014, ClearCapital reported in its HDI Market report. Distressed inventory is no longer reinforcing a strong housing market recovery. Discounted distressed deals continue to dry up, down from a national high ... Read More »