For nearly two months, through the heart of the spring buying season, the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing's Market Action Index has stayed stuck at 29, one point below the official level designating a seller's market.
A nationwide panel of 118 economists, real estate experts and investment and market professionals expects home values to end 2013 up an average of 4.6 percent and rise cumulatively by 22 percent, on average, over the next five years, according to the first quarter Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.
Real estate professionals are more optimistic that prices will increase this year than they were last year, but they're less enthusiastic about the outlook for sales increases in 2013 than they were in 2012.
The housing recovery is expected to grow at an annualized rate 0.6 percent through the third quarter of this year, then gain momentum and prices are projected to grow 3.7 percent between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014 until settling down to 3.3 percent annual increases over the next three years according to Fiserv, a financial services technology provider using data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Weak prices in a number of late fall markets as evident in NAR's latest pending sales index has been causing concern in the real estate circles, but Case-Shiller, the final word on prices, downplayed the doubters today.
Home prices are overvalued and price growth is not being driven by fundamentals but by technical factors that could easily change, advised Fitch Ratings Friday. The ratings service believes national prices are 10 percent overvalued, but will likely drop by no more than 2 percent due to inflation.
Fifty years from now the US will have 20 million fewer residents than previously forecast, according to the Census Bureau's new national population projections released last week, which will translate in reduced demand for housing than expected.
While California and Texas markets dominate the top tier of the latest Home Value Forecast ranking, the bottom of the list includes metros that could miss the housing recovery in the months to come.
October prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012, the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest data from CoreLogic.
CoreLogic's pending sales index indicates that October prices will rising by 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2011 and falling by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from September 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter.
Fannie Mae’s economists expect total home sales to rise approximately 9 percent this year from last year’s depressed levels.
Unlike the past three years, this year the price appreciation gains achieved during the spring and summer won't fade away in the fall and winter because an improved balance between supply and demand fueled by investors, pent up demand and consumer confidence is making today's housing recovery more durable than past efforts in recent years.
Nominal house prices will continue to rise for the UFA 100, a broad based composite index of 100 US cities. Under current economic conditions commonly used house price indices will rise between 8.5 and 22 percent cumulatively over the next five years, but recovery will be slow for the larger metro areas in the Case-Shiller 10 city composite.
Bank of America's announcement yesterday that it has significantly improved its home price forecast for the current year made headlines, but in fact the bank joins a growing list of housing economists who have seen the light and hopped on the recovery bandwagon.
A new analysis of the impact of pent-up demand for homes that has been deferred by the housing crisis and recession could increase the homeownership rate by nearly 2 percent.
National median home prices will improve for the balance of the year and end with a slight annual decline before bottoming out by 2013, but homeownership will continue to drop over the next five years, according to a quarterly survey of housing economists and experts released today.
The stage is set for the nation's housing economy to recover, but the recovery has not yet begun. That's the consensus of a Webinar today from three of Standard & Poor's economists after presenting the latest data.
Record low mortgage rates are failing to generate stimulate mortgage applications for home purchases, which are down 3.9 percent below last year's level. As a result, last week the Mortgage Bankers Association lowered its 2012 estimate for home sales.
Fitch Ratings' outlook for U.S. residential real estate prices has improved slightly in recent months, but the authoritative ratings service still sees no bottom to declining housing prices until late 2013.
As the spring buying season begins, some real estate gurus are getting cold feet about prices despite reports of record low inventories and consistent increases in sales.
Confidence in the 2012 housing market among Realtors is increasing and some 67 percent expect prices to rise in the months to come. However, the overall jobs and economic situation continues to have a major, negative impact on the residential markets.
Is an oversupply of housing units the real reason that America is suffering from low prices? Is the glut is so serious that it will plague local housing markets and depress home values for a number of years to come?
This year will be a tale of two cities. Local employment created by economic growth will drive housing market recoveries, and those markets that create more jobs will see property values and rents improve faster than others that don't.
Home prices this year cease their decline and gain a slight 0.2 percent across all markets as more and more individual markets stabilize in the months to come.
Expect at least another full year of falling home prices before things get better. That's the bottom line from Fannie Mae's economists in their final forecast for 2011.
The Housing Crisis, which kicked off with the melt down of the Miami condo market in 2006, is changing Florida into a state where new properties are being exclusively marketed for foreign ownership and snow-state retirees who once were the lifeblood of the state's huge second home market now rent instead of buying.
Consumer sentiment on housing expectations is stabilizing as the year winds down and consumers are adopting a "wait and see" attitude towards 2012, according to Fannie Mae's November National Housing Survey.
We're going to have to wait a few more months for an upturn in housing prices. Down 5.9 percent through the second quarter of this year, home prices will decline an additional 3.6 percent until the middle of next year before they recover 2.4 percent from the second half 2012 through the first half 2013.
They can't build apartment buildings fast enough to meet the demand for rental housing, even though construction is booming across the nation.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who have already cost taxpayers $169 billion since the federal government took them over in September 2008, will cost taxpayers a totl of $220 to 311 billion over the next three years.
That's what 2011's final score will be, according to Freddie Mac's latest outlook for 2011, as vacancy rates shrivel and sales struggle to stay even with last year's tax credit boom and bust.
Even though purchase mortgage applications perked up last week, anemic was the word used by the Mortgage Bankers Association to describe the outlook for mortgage originations next year, including purchase originations, which it projects will grow only 3 percent in 2012 after they plunge 15 percent this year.
The unimaginable is now a possibility. According to the latest forecast by one of the nation's leading housing data providers, by the end of the first quarter next year, the nation's average home prices could sink below the lowest levels reached earlier this last year, when prices set a new record low.
The home price picture for this year is shaping up to be a little better than it looked June, according to the September 2011 home price expectations survey of 111 leading housing economists and experts sponsored by MacroMarkets LLC.
Price declines will end and average U. S. home prices will stabilize by Labor Day. Prices in even the hardest-hit markets will level out by the end of 2012.
Interest rates below 5 percent and prices bottoming out in the first half of the year will drive two of the three main ingredients for buyer affordability to cyclic lows next year, Freddie Mac's chief economist said yesterday.
A panel of 103 leading housing economists and real estate experts predict cumulative home prices will rise an average only 8.3 percent over at least the next three years, according to the latest 2010 MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey.
Though most forecasters are bearish on the outlook for property values next year, due largely to the overhang of foreclosures that is worsening with the self-imposed moratoria by several big lenders, a consensus is building for improved demand by next summer as the overall economic picture brightens.
Not until March 1, 2014 will the last of the seven million properties that are currently delinquent, in foreclosure, or bank-owned finally return to life as homes or investments.
Expecting overall mortgage originations to fall about $400 billion next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association hopes for a 30 percent rebound in mortgages originated for home purchases next year, according to its economic forecast released Tuesday.
Predictions by housing bears that the fourth quarter will kick off a slump in housing prices that will last long into next year seem to be coming true a couple of months early, according to price reports released yesterday.
Hopes are sinking and uncertainty is on the rise that a housing recovery will begin next year, according to a monthly survey of housing economists.
Home prices will fall another 10 percent before they stabilize in the second half of next year, Roelof Slump, Managing Director of Structured Finance Experts for Fitch Ratings told investors Thursday.
Distress sales, foreclosures and short sales will increase their market share during the fourth quarter as the tax-credit induced sales bump disappears and buyers return to bargain shopping.
Home prices may fall an additional 1 to 1.5 percent in the third quarter but they will stabilize during the first half of 20011 and begin to rise during the balance of the year, according to the September forecast issued by the GSE's economists.
Fannie Mae's economists see 2.5 percent overall growth in the second half of 2010 but forecast housing will be flat for the remainder of the year due to a greater than expected number of sales being pulled forward into the second quarter by the homebuyer tax credit.
Recent gains in home values are temporary and markets are poised for a 5 percent dip during the balance of 2010.
The risk of borrowers defaulting on their mortgages today is much less than in 2006 to 2008, but it will take at least five years for risk to return to pre-bubble levels, a leading expert on default risk told Real Estate Economy Watch.
With healthy inventories, 3 million foreclosures, more and more short sales, falling values, rising vacancy rates, shrinking rents and one third of all homeowners underwater, could we possibly be heading for a national housing shortage this year?
Housing activity is expected to be brisk in the New Year according to Fannie Mae's recently released December Housing Forecast.
A four-year downturn has evidently come to an end for U.S. homebuilders, according to Fitch Ratings in its outlook report for the sector.
Housing Forecasts: National Association of Realtors; National Association of Homebuilders; Mortgage Bankers Association; Fannie Mae; and Freddie Mac
It will take more than a decade for housing markets to regain the ground that has been lost since 2006 predicted a top economic researcher with Moody's Economy.com yesterday, the second leading housing economist to issue a gloomy recovery forecast in the past week.
It's clear the "echoes" will spawn a record number of households and boost housing demand but it's not such a given that they will become homeowners, at least right away. In fact, in the near term, demographic forces favor the rental over the for-sale market.