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Forecasts

Stormy Weather Hits Home Sales

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Is it just the end of the buying season or are home sales hitting a wall? A growing consensus of economists foresees a flattening in sales growth—or even year-over-year declines in the months to come–for the balance of the year and even into next year.  Sales may have reached a ceiling for the season. A combination of rising prices, slow ... Read More »

Housing Experts Foresee Migration to the Midwest

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Job growth and better housing values in America’s heartland will reverse the movement of families to the coasts in recent years and generate population growth in Midwestern markets which have declinded in recent years. Over half of experts surveyed in the latest quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations (ZHPE) Survey said they don’t expect migration to the coasts to continue indefinitely. ... Read More »

Summer Sales Slow as 2016 Heads for ‘Moderation”

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The first analysis of June market data confirms forecasts that sales peaked in the first half of the year and will hold on to make 2016 a moderating, normalizing housing market like those preceding boom, at the turn of the Millennium. Clear Capital forecasted between sales growth at 1% to 3% in January and is sticking a with the same forecast, which ... Read More »

Economists say Shortages, not Economic Growth, are Driving Home Prices

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  Tight inventories of homes for sale rather than economic factors, like rising income levels  or low interest rates, are driving higher than expected increases in home prices.  Yet recent low interest rates are not creating an unsustainable increase in home values, concluded the more than 100 housing economists and experts participating in the latest quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations ... Read More »

Clear Capital Hopes a Thaw will Warm up Prices

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Winter continues to slow growth in housing price appreciation across the nation, but distressed saturation levels – the percentage of real estate owned and short sales to all sales – could point to a strong market return come spring. Across the nation, regions continue to wane in quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth in home prices during the slow winter real estate season. ... Read More »

Experts Raise Estimate on 2016 Home Prices But Still Trail 2015

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The consensus of more than 100 real estate experts and economists’ 2016 home price expectations has risen slightly from last quarter but is lower than 2015 price levels.  The experts predict that annual price appreciation in 2016 will end up at 3.65 percent by the end of the year, according to the first quarter 2016 survey conducted by Pulsenomics, up ... Read More »

Will Rental Housing, not Homeownership, be the Big Winner?

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  As household formation strengthens and returns to previous levels over the next ten years, a new report from the Demand Institute projects that demand for rental housing will continue to lead the way and the home ownership rate is unlikely to revert to previous highs seen during the housing boom in the early 2000s. According to the report, while ... Read More »

Inventory Update: Get the Cavalry Ready

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When we published “Will Sellers Step up the Plate in 2016? “two weeks ago December market report weren’t in yet and it was clearly too early to blow the bugle over the inventory picture for the coming season The reports are now in and hands are reaching for the nearest brass instruments.  Too many signals from too many sources are ... Read More »

NAR Lowers Sales Forecast

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The National Association of Realtors has reduced its outlook for existing sales in 2016 from a 3 percent increase over 2015 (5.45 million sales) to an increase of only 1 to 2 percent (5.30 to 5.40 million sales). The new forecast, three months before the opening of the home sales season, amends an early one made at NAR’s annual meeting ... Read More »

Clear Capital Puts a Chill in 2016 Price Forecasts

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  Prices in the year to come are going to be a lot worse than most earlier forecasts, according to  Clear Capital’s view of the market, which refuses to “sugarcoat the data”.  The provider of real estate valuations, data and analytics calls for continued market instability and a trend of decreasing rates over the next 12 months, especially in mid ... Read More »

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