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Forecasts

Wells Circles the Wagons

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Growing concern over the faltering housing recovery has inspired an unusual vote of confidence for housing’s fundamentals from two of Wells Fargo’s top economists. In a “special commentary” published in the bank’s web site, senior economists Mark Vitner and Anika R. Khan argue that too much progress has been made restoring growth to the overall economy for the recovery to ... Read More »

CoreLogic Stays Bullish

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While slack demand is causing others to slice their price forecasts for next six to 12 months, CoreLogic reports August prices are up 6.4 percent year-over-year and it predicts by next August, prices will rise an additional 5.2 percent. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.2 percent month over month from August ... Read More »

Fannie Sees Sunshine

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Fannie Mae’s monthly consumer survey found that most consumers surveyed believe prices will rise by 2.2 percent over the next year even though they are falling now and fewer than half think mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months even though rates today are near historic lows. Moreover, in September, the share of consumers who say now ... Read More »

Prices Fall with Consumer Sentiment

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September home price data marks the 11th straight month of moderating gains. Nationally, yearly gains decreased from a high of 11.7percent in October 2013 to just 7.8percent through September 2014, ClearCapital reported in its HDI Market report. Distressed inventory is no longer reinforcing a strong housing market recovery. Discounted distressed deals continue to dry up, down from a national high ... Read More »

Are Inventories nearing the Danger Zone?

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Prompted by two years of steadily rising prices, inventories are reaching levels higher than they have been in two and a half years according Zillow. Inventory shortages have plagued real estate markets for much of that time, but the latest data suggests that the pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction.  Zillow reported that national for-sale inventory ... Read More »

Price Increases Stay Strong Through July, Forecasted to Diminish

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Home prices nationwide increased 7.4 percent in July compared to July 2013 but next year at this time, year over year increases will fall to 5.7 percent, CoreLogic forecasted today. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 1.2 percent in July 2014 compared to June 2014. However the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, are ... Read More »

Clear Capital: Welcome Back to 2004

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  National home prices have been nominally unchanged for a lost decade and we’re back to 2004 levels without even accounting for inflation, leaving many homeowners with no more equity than when they bought.  That’s the grim assessment by Clear Capitol in its September market report. If national home price growth continues to diminish, the lost decade will drag out. August home price ... Read More »

Economists in Reuters Poll See Stronger Sales, Weaker Prices in 2015

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The annual pace of existing home sales will likely rise to 5.25 million units in the first three months of 2015 from 5.09 million in the current quarter, according to a Reuters poll of economists But prices next year will be weaker than this year. The S&P/Case-Shiller gauge of property values in 20 metropolitan areas was seen rising just 5.0 ... Read More »

Case-Shiller Still Stuck

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  The June Case-Shiller consensus reports an 8.4% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index but the Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to slow the increase 8.1% year-over-year, and for prices to be unchanged month-to-month. Zillow’s forecast for Case-Shiller’s July 2014 data cuts the non-seasonally adjusted 20-City Composite Home Price Index increase to 7.0 percent and the 10-City ... Read More »

Fannie Sees Sales Plunging as Prices Rise

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  Fannie Mae’s economists downgraded their outlook for 2014 sales following the disappointing housing activity seen during the first half of the year but remained bullish on the housing market’s ability to consolidate it price gains this year. According to the forecast in Fannie’s August Housing Forecast, home sales will fall 3.2 percent below last year’s level of 5,519,000 units ... Read More »