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A Sputtering Housing Market
Housing activity is sputtering even though there are government subsidy programs in place to support housing demand.
Homebuyer Tax Credit Warms up Spring Home Sales
By: Steve Cook; Tue, Feb 16, 2010
Record snows may still clog driveways and carpet lawns with ice but the spring real estate market is kicking off across the country earlier than normal as buyers push to make the April 30 tax credit deadline.
Observations on the Economy and Housing Market
By: David Lereah; Wed, Feb 10, 2010
At a cursory glance, the U.S. economy is improving, while the status of the housing market remains uncertain.
Mounting Foreclosures Impede Housing Recovery
By: David Lereah; Mon, Feb 1, 2010
It is painfully clear that the number one obstacle preventing a complete housing recovery is the foreclosure crisis.
Falling Home Values: The Worst may be Over
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jan 25, 2010
During the past several years, the nation's housing sector has been weighed down with a disturbing trend that had been absent since the Great Depression: falling home values.
Commissions Reach Nine-Year Peak
By: Steve Cook; Sun, Jan 10, 2010
Real estate commissions have risen for four straight years and they are higher today than they have been since 2001.
Contracts to Purchase Homes Plummet
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 5, 2010
There was a large drop-off in the number of households signing home sales contracts in November...
The New Year Begins with Uncertain Housing Outlook
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jan 4, 2010
Housing data released this past month suggest a more uncertain housing outlook than the month before.
Home Sales Continue to Surge
By: David Lereah; Tue, Dec 22, 2009
After soaring in October, sales of previously owned homes rose sharply again in November, climbing to their strongest pace since early 2007.
Housing Industry Poised to Recover in 2010
By: David Lereah; Thu, Dec 17, 2009
As we approach the New Year, we are more hopeful about prospects for 2010 compared to the dismal performance of 2009.
A Web of Housing Subsidies Threatens the Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Dec 10, 2009
Don't let recent good news about the nation's housing sector lull you into believing that the housing market is firmly on the road to recovery-because it isn't.
Rise in Mortgage Applications Favors Housing Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Dec 3, 2009
More people applied for mortgage loans to either purchase a home or to refinance their existing mortgage loan according to a survey of mortgage lenders released yesterday morning. A weekly survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that in the week ending November 27, mortgage applications to purchase homes increased 4.1 percent from a week [...]
Contracts to Purchase Homes Continue to Climb
By: David Lereah; Tue, Dec 1, 2009
The index of pending home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors, climbed 3.7 percent in October compared to the previous month, marking the ninth consecutive month that the index has increased.
Is the Expanded Homebuyer Tax Credit Overkill?
By: David Lereah; Tue, Nov 24, 2009
Wild swings in the housing data released this past week indicate that both homebuilders and households were heavily influenced by the tax credit extension debate.
Existing Home Sales Soar Ten Percent
By: Steve Cook; Mon, Nov 23, 2009
Driven by the first-time buyer tax credit, existing-home sales showed another big gain in October, while inventories continue to decline
Investors Fade While Short Sales Soar
By: Steve Cook; Fri, Nov 20, 2009
Investors buying homes to rent or sell accounted for only 15 percent of the housing market last month as they competed with large numbers of first-time homebuyers.
Data Suggests Housing Recovery Has Stalled, Temporarily
By: David Lereah; Thu, Nov 19, 2009
Today's housing recovery is having a difficult time settling into a steady trajectory.
Housing Designed for Aging Boomers Perks Up
By: Steve Cook; Mon, Nov 16, 2009
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Single-Family Housing Market Index showed a six-point increase in the third quarter of 2009,
Rush to Tax Credit Deadline Pushes up Pending Sales
By: Steve Cook; Mon, Nov 2, 2009
Contracts on existing homes rose 6.1 percent in September as first-time homebuyers rushed to take advantage of the $8000 Federal tax credit before it expires November 30.
Rate on 30-Year Fixed Rises to 5.35 Percent
By: Steve Cook; Thu, Oct 29, 2009
The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched higher to 5.35 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey.
New Home Sales Report Disappoints
By: David Lereah; Wed, Oct 28, 2009
Sales of new homes fell in September after rising for five consecutive months, a government report said Wednesday.
Home Price Improvements May Be Short-Lived
By: David Lereah; Tue, Oct 27, 2009
Home values, as measured by the popular S&P Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities rose a non-seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in August compared to a month earlier.
Home Sales Climb to Highest Level in Two Years
By: David Lereah; Fri, Oct 23, 2009
Sales of previously owned homes rose sharply in September to their highest level in two year, according to a report from a leading trade association released Friday. Existing home sales rose 9.4 percent in September to 5.57 annualized units from a 5.09 annualized pace in August according to a report issued by the National Association of [...]
Mortgage Applications Fall
By: Steve Cook; Thu, Oct 22, 2009
Last week applications for mortgages fell 13.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Homebuilding May be Losing Momentum
By: David Lereah; Tue, Oct 20, 2009
Housing construction of new homes in the U.S. increased slightly in September, disappointing housing analysts
Borrowing Costs for Home Mortgage Inch Up
By: David Lereah; Fri, Oct 16, 2009
Borrowing costs for households seeking to purchase a home or refinance their mortgage loan rose slightly during the week ending October 15
Rise in Mortgage Rates Slows Mortgage Applications
By: David Lereah; Thu, Oct 15, 2009
Less people applied for mortgage loans to either purchase a home or to refinance their existing mortgage loan according to a survey of mortgage lenders released yesterday morning.
Homebuyers Overly Optimistic about Future Home Values
By: David Lereah; Thu, Oct 15, 2009
There has been a sharp reversal in home prices in recent months-home values are now going up, rather than down and a rise in buyer optimism may have something to do with it.
Freddie Mac’s Closing Cost Assistance Expires at End of Month
By: David Lereah; Tue, Oct 13, 2009
Homebuyers have less than a month left to take advantage of a program that pays a significant part of a buyer's closing costs...
Borrowing Costs for Home Mortgages Continue to Drop
By: David Lereah; Fri, Oct 9, 2009
Borrowing costs for households seeking to purchase a home or refinance their mortgage loan fell to near historic low levels during the week ending October 8
Surge in Weekly Mortgage Applications Encouraging
By: David Lereah; Wed, Oct 7, 2009
More people are applying for mortgage loans to either purchase a home or to refinance their existing mortgage loan according to a survey of mortgage lenders released this morning.
The Rich and Famous are Buying Homes Again
By: David Lereah; Tue, Oct 6, 2009
The rich and famous are buying again according to a report on home prices in the Hamptons, an exclusive summer retreat in Long Island, New York.
Residential and Commercial Real Estate Headed in Different Directions
By: David Lereah; Fri, Oct 2, 2009
A government report on construction spending in August underscored the divergence of residential and commercial real estate activity.
Households Signed More Home Sales Contracts in August
By: David Lereah; Thu, Oct 1, 2009
Households rushed to sign more home sales contracts in August that at any other month this year according to a recent housing report.
Borrowing Costs for Home Mortgages Holding Steady
By: David Lereah; Thu, Oct 1, 2009
Borrowing costs for households seeking to purchase a home or refinance their mortgage loan held steady during the week of September 24.
Efforts to Keep Households in their Homes is on the Rise
By: David Lereah; Wed, Sep 30, 2009
Government efforts to keep people in their homes are working according to a government report released this week.
Mortgage Applications Drop Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
By: David Lereah; Wed, Sep 30, 2009
Less people are applying for mortgage loans to either purchase a home or to refinance their existing mortgage loan according to a survey of mortgage lenders released this morning.
Home Price Report Offers Encouraging News
By: David Lereah; Tue, Sep 29, 2009
Home prices rose for the third consecutive month in July according to a report released Tuesday by S&P Case-Shiller.
A Green House is Born After Tragedy
By: David Lereah; Mon, Sep 28, 2009
A Long Island family has turned a tragedy into an opportunity-a green opportunity that is. And the family might live happily ever after.
New Home Sales Increase to Highest Level this Year
By: David Lereah; Fri, Sep 25, 2009
New home sales have increased 5 consecutive months.
Existing Home Sales Drop Unexpectedly
By: David Lereah; Thu, Sep 24, 2009
Existing home sales decreased in August, after a four-month stretch of increases, according to a release issued on Thursday.
Federal Reserve Extends Bailout for Housing
By: David Lereah; Thu, Sep 24, 2009
Federal Reserve policymakers announced yesterday that although the economy and housing markets have improved, they are not yet ready to remove monetary support for growth. This was good news for both the economy and housing markets.
Rise in Household Wealth Could Bolster Home Buying
By: David Lereah; Wed, Sep 23, 2009
U.S. households were $2 trillion wealthier at the end of the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2009 according to a report recently released by the Federal Reserve. This was the first time in two years that household net worth increased.
Rising Mortgage Applications Encouraging Sign for Housing Markets
By: David Lereah; Wed, Sep 23, 2009
More people are applying for mortgage loans to either purchase a home or to refinance their existing mortgage loan according to a survey of mortgage lenders released this morning.
New Housing Construction at Nine-Month High
By: David Lereah; Sun, Sep 20, 2009
New housing construction in the U.S. rose to the highest level in nine months according to a government report released Thursday.
The Home Affordability Paradox
By: David Lereah; Sat, Sep 19, 2009
The housing recovery has been modest at best even though home affordability is hovering near record levels. Housing is more affordable today because of historically low mortgage rates and falling home values. But affordability measures have become less relevant in today’s real estate marketplace.
Slowly but Surely Economy, Housing Improving
By: David Lereah; Mon, Aug 17, 2009
Slowly but surely, progress is being made for both the economy and the housing sector.
Housing Demand Faces Overwhelming Obstacles
By: David Lereah; Thu, Aug 13, 2009
There are some harsh realities at work that promise to inhibit housing demand into the foreseeable future, assuring only a modest recovery in the nation's housing sector, at best. See our new Housing Forecast; go to: http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/category/housing-forecasts/forecasts/
The Two Headed Housing Recovery
By: David Lereah; Thu, Aug 6, 2009
Both home sales/construction and home prices have fallen precipitously during today's housing recession. Thus, for us to proclaim a complete recovery in the today's housing sector, both home sales/construction and home prices must stabilize and begin their ascent.
Housing Data Point to Sales Recovery
By: David Lereah; Mon, Jul 27, 2009
Just a half year ago, the U.S. financial system was on the brink of collapse; the economy was headed towards a Depression; and the housing sector was in disrepair. Today, everything seems to be nervously falling into place for both the economy and the housing sector.
Digesting This Week’s Housing Data
By: David Lereah; Thu, Jun 4, 2009
There has been a great deal of housing data released this past week to digest; some good news and some bad news. Since many believe that the housing sector may have already bottomed out, we are particularly focused on any new information that can either confirm or deny this claim.
Home Price Indices Disappoint
By: David Lereah; Wed, May 27, 2009
The recent release of the Case-Shiller home price index for March was disappointing news for the housing markets. Unfortunately, other recent home price measures-- the FHFA purchase-only home price index and the median price for existing homes also disappointed the markets.
Purchase Applications Indicate Weak Housing Demand
By: David Lereah; Thu, May 21, 2009
With most housing measures showing improvement in recent months, there is one measure that is bucking the trend- mortgage applications to purchase homes.
One Fifth of Homeowners Now Underwater
One fifth (21.9 percent) of all American homeowners have negative equity in their homes, a 4.3 percent increase over the fourth quarter of last year, as property values continued to fall nationally at an alarming rate.
First-timer Tax Credit is Working
By: Steve Cook; Tue, May 5, 2009
Looks like last year's first-time homebuyer tax credit-the one the housing industry pooh-poohed because it required buyers to pay it back over 15 years-is doing a lot better than most people expected.
Homeownership Rates
By: David Lereah; Wed, Apr 29, 2009
In the era of relaxed underwriting our nation's homeownership rate climbed to 69.2 percent at the peak in 2004. Today, a sharp downturn and tight underwriting conditions have exerted downward pressure on the homeownership rate which is currently hovering around 68 percent and falling. A reasonable question is: what should the nation's homeownership rate be?
Commercial Property Faces Crisis
By: David Lereah; Wed, Mar 25, 2009
Commercial real-estate loans are going sour at an accelerating pace, threatening to cause tens of billions of dollars in losses to banks already hurt by the housing downturn. The delinquency rate on about $700 billion in securitized loans backed by office buildings, hotels, stores and other investment property has more than doubled since September to 1.8% this month, according to data provided to The Wall Street Journal by Deutsche Bank AG. While that's low compared with the home-mortgage delinquency rate, it's just short of the highest rate during the last downturn early this decade. Some experts say it now looks as if the current commercial real-estate slump will rival or even exceed the one in the early 1990s, when bad commercial-property debt played a big role in dragging the economy into a recession. Then, close to 1,000 U.S. banks and savings institutions failed. Lenders took about $48.5 billion in charges on commercial real-estate debt between 1990 and 1995, representing 7.9% of such debt outstanding.
The Fuel for Home Buying
By: David Lereah; Tue, Mar 24, 2009
Although housing demand is primarily weak today because of non-population factors such as falling home prices, job losses, decreased wealth and declining consumer confidence, population factors are also contributing to sluggish demand. Today’s recession has influenced population changes that are negatively impacting housing demand
Another Blow to the Economy and Housing
By: David Lereah; Tue, Feb 10, 2009
The nation’s battered labor market took another hit this past week as employers cut another 598,000 jobs off of U.S. payrolls in January.
Cloudy Housing Data
By: David Lereah; Tue, Feb 10, 2009
As the nation’s housing sector continues to sink, we are becoming increasingly preoccupied with monitoring and interpreting housing data. We are looking for any positive sign that the housing markets are turning the corner and recovery is within sight.
Struggling to Recover
By: David Lereah; Tue, Feb 3, 2009
Like a tired heavyweight boxer receiving blows to the head, some crushing economic reports released this past week kept the economy and housing markets in retreat and further away from recovery. The first blow was the December new home sales release which saw new home sales plummet 14.7 percent to an unimaginable 333,000 annualized units.
No End to REOs
By: Steve Cook; Tue, Jan 27, 2009
Selling foreclosed properties after lenders have taken possession—known in the business as REOs or real estate owned properties—is not for everyone. Prices are lower than market values, reducing commissions. Then there’s the cost and stress of cleaning up and maintaining properties that are usually ill-maintained if not outright trashed. Finally, collecting money from slow-paying banks is a pain.
Harbingers for a Better Housing Market
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 20, 2009
Here are some signs that are likely to signal a market turnaround for the housing market. We define a turnaround as a steady increase in home sales from a trough.
Indicators Signal Same Old Story
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 20, 2009
Economic and housing indicators for this past week reveal the same old story—the recession is getting deeper and a recovery for the housing sector is not yet close. Retail sales for December fell 2.7 percent, worse than expected. This report suggests an even more severe retreat in consumer spending than previously expected. Excluding automobiles, retail sales fell by a whopping 3.1 percent for the month. This report does not bode well for future consumer spending and suggests that we are likely in the depths of the recession.
Commercial Real Estate Headed for Downturn
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 13, 2009
Commercial real estate is finally joining the party. Even though there has been no meaningful overbuilding in commercial real estate, the outlook for the industry has seriously dimmed. The retail and office sectors have turned down with vacancies rising. And the industrial sector is not far behind. A tightened credit market and a slumping economy are to blame.
Indicators Do Not Bode Well for First Half of 2009
By: David Lereah; Tue, Jan 6, 2009
The U.S. economy enters the New Year with momentum of a recession getting deeper not shallower. Most economic indicators reflect an economy contracting at an accelerating pace.
Get this widget See local rates - Senate Clears Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension to Pass This Week
- CEOs Launch New Drive for Expanded Homebuyer Tax Credit
- Homebuyer Tax Credit Will Motivate First-time Buyers More than Move-up Buyers
- Congress Passes Homebuyer Tax Credit
By: David Lereah; Thu, Mar 4, 2010
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