Without distressed sales, prices would have fallen only 0.9 percent in 2011, an indication of the impact of distressed sales on home prices in 2011 according to CoreLogic, a leading provider of information, analytics and business services.

In December, home prices decreased 1.4 percent on a month-over-month but excluding distressed sales, prices would have posted their posted its first month-over-month gain since July 2011, rising 0.2 percent. The December drop in home prices follows a decline of 4.3 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 2 percent in November 2011 compared to November 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“While overall prices declined by almost 5 percent in 2011, non-distressed prices showed only a small decrease. Until distressed sales in the market recede, we will see continued downward pressure on prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Highlights as of December 2011

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Montana (+4.4 percent), Vermont (+4.0 percent), South Dakota (+3.1 percent), Nebraska (+2.5 percent) and New York (+1.7 percent).
• Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Illinois (-11.3 percent), Nevada (-10.6 percent), Georgia (-8.3 percent), Ohio (-7.7 percent), and Minnesota (-7.5 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Montana (+7.7 percent), South Dakota (+3.5 percent), Indiana (+3.3 percent), Alaska (+3.1 percent), and Massachusetts (+2.9 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-9.7 percent), Minnesota (-5.2 percent), Arizona (-4.9 percent), Delaware (-4.2 percent) and Michigan (-3.5 percent).
• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to December 2011) was -33.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -24.0 percent.
• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-60.0 percent), Arizona (-51.9 percent), Florida (-50 percent), Michigan (-43.7 percent), and California (-43.5 percent).
• Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 81 are showing year-over-year declines in December, one more than in November.

Home prices have declined steadily over the past three months and now trail last year by 3.9 percent, according to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Index.

This follows a decline of 3.8 percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010 and by 2.1 percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: West Virginia (+4.8 percent), South Dakota (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.0 percent), District of Columbia (+2.4 percent) and Alaska (+2.1 percent).

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-12.1 percent), Illinois (-9.4 percent), Arizona (-8.1 percent), Minnesota (-7.9 percent) and Georgia (-7.3 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: South Carolina (+4.6 percent), Maine (+3.1 percent), New York (+3.1 percent), Alaska (+2.9 percent) and Kansas (+2.8 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-8.8 percent), Arizona (-7.0 percent), Minnesota (-5.7 percent), Delaware (-3.9 percent) and Georgia (-3.6 percent).

• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2011) was -32.0 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -22.4 percent.

• Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 78 are showing year-over-year declines in October, two fewer than in September.

“In August sales transactions data, we saw the national average home price decline 0.9 percent, following a decline of 0.4 percent in July. This ended a series of increases during the spring of this year; a pattern that has occurred each year since 2009. In addition, the early, partial data for September sales indicates a likely further decline of approximately 1.1 percent to come. As of the end of August, the national average home price was $205,000. This is down 3.8 percent from August last year, and down 0.4 percent from January 1, 2011,” said Kyle Lundstedt, managing director for LPS Applied Analytics

Home prices in August continued the downward trend begun after the market peak in June 2006. The LPS HPI average national home price has declined 28.3 percent since then. The total value of U.S. housing inventory covered by the LPS HPI stood at $10.6 trillion at the peak. As of the end of August 2011, it was $7.65 trillion. During the period of most rapid price changes, from July 31, 2007, through December, 2009, prices declined $56,000 from $282,000. The average annual decline during that time was 13.8 percent.

Since December 2009, prices have fallen more slowly, interrupted by brief seasonal intervals of rising prices. Since then, the LPS HPI national average home price has fallen $20,000 from $225,000. This corresponds to an average annual decline of 3.6 percent. Price changes were largely consistent across the country during August. Prices increased in only five percent of ZIP codes in the LPS HPI. Higher-priced homes had smaller declines: -0.72 percent for the top 20 percent of homes (prices above $321,000) compared to -1.0 percent for the bottom 20 percent (below $103,000).

Price changes during August for any given state were largely consistent among the states’ metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Average prices of all MSAs in a state declined together for 347 of the 404 MSAs covered by the LPS HPI. A slightly smaller number of MSAs, 340, were in states where all price levels for all MSAs declined together. Average prices declined for all MSAs in Louisiana and Minnesota, but not all price levels declined for all their MSAs. Other states where some price levels in some MSAs increased were Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan and New York.

Average prices declined during August in all but three of the 26 largest MSAs in the country that both the LPS HPI and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ economic data cover: Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis remained essentially unchanged. Changes ranged from -0.3 percent in Honolulu to -2.8 percent in Atlanta.

Since the beginning of the year, average home price declines have been in the minority for the largest 26 MSAs. Ten of the MSAs have seen declines. The largest declines have been in Atlanta (-10.5 percent) and Phoenix (-5.2 percent). The largest increases have occurred in Detroit (10.8 percent) and Pittsburgh (4.5 percent).

Over the past year, however, average home prices have not declined in only six of the largest MSAs. Prices have been largely stable in New York since August 31, 2010; they have increased in Detroit (5.3 percent), Honolulu (3.3 percent), Miami (0.6 percent) and Pittsburgh (3.2 percent).

Since the market peak, Pittsburgh is the only MSA that has seen its average home price rise.

As of the end of August, four MSAs have average home prices below what they were at the end of January 2000: Atlanta (-20.4 percent), Cleveland (-7.4 percent), Detroit (-41.6 percent), and Phoenix (-8.0 percent).

Among the MSAs that the LPS HPI covers, those with the highest price changes during August were mostly in Michigan or nearby states. ‘Highest’ is a relative term, and among the highest price changes were modest declines. Sturgis and Grand Rapids, Mich., had the greatest monthly increase of all the MSAs at 0.4 percent.

Most of the MSAs with the greatest declines in price during August were in California or nearby Arizona and Nevada. There were several MSAs with large declines that are not in the Southwest. In addition to the 2.8 percent decline in Atlanta, Gainesville, Ga., had the greatest monthly decline among all MSAs covered by the LPS HPI, 3.0 percent.Prices were down 3.8 percent from August last year and based on partial data for September, sales will further decline approximately 1.1 percent to come, according to the latest Lender Processing Services’ Home Price Index

“One of the most overlooked statistical trends in all of real estate is the growth in home sales, both single-family and condo, in the state of Florida,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “We’ve seen an upward trend in sales since January 2011, and September’s sales were a full 10 percent above September 2010. Even prices, which have been static over the past few months, are well above where they were in January 2011.  See Soaring Prices Suggest a Florida Phenomenon.

“One of the reasons for this is stabilization in the distressed property market. This is not a problem that’s going away, but there’s a degree of certainty that is helping the market.”

Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported higher existing home sales in September; 11 MSAs had higher existing condo sales.

The statewide median sales price for existing homes last month was $133,900; a year ago, it was $135,000 for only a 1 percent decrease. According to analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in August 2011 was $168,400, down 5.4 percent from a year ago, according to NAR. In California, the August statewide median resales price was $297,060; in Maryland, it was $241,564; and in New York, it was $220,000.

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 6,666 units sold statewide in September, a 10 percent gain over the 6,035 units sold in September 2010. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $87,200; a year earlier, it was $81,800 for a 7 percent increase.

“Historically low mortgage rates and stabilizing home prices all across Florida’s local housing markets continue to attract potential buyers - housing affordability conditions are very favorable right now,” said 2011 Florida Realtors President Patricia Fitzgerald, manager/broker-associate with Illustrated Properties in Hobe Sound and Mariner Sands Country Club in Stuart. “However, financially qualified buyers are still being denied home loans because of overly restrictive lending requirements, and that’s a significant obstacle to the housing recovery.”

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.11 percent in September, down from the 4.35 percent average during the same month a year earlier. Florida Realtors’ sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

According to data released last week by Realtor.com, the national inventory of for-sale single family homes, condominiums, townhouses and co-ops) declined 3.27 percent from August and are 20.09 percent lower compared to one year ago.

The inventory picture painted by Realtor.com’s unique database of more than 2.1 million listings tracks a steady six month decline through the early spring and summer.

The inventory draw down, while healthy in times of lackluster demand, may be a response to depressed prices by owners who have the option of waiting until prices improve.  That might be the case in markets thick with second home and resort properties like Miami, Phoenix-Mesa, Orlando and Fort Myers-Cape Coral-which also happen to be the top four markets for year-over-year inventory declines in the Realtor.com report.

The latest RE/MAX monthly survey also found inventories are down by virtually the same percentage over the same time period.  Inventories in the RE/MAX survey have declined steadily, falling in September for the fifteenth month in a row, suggesting again that more than seasonality is at work.  The average inventory of homes-for-sale in the 53 metro areas surveyed dropped 4.8 percent from August and 20.2 percent from September 2010 (virtually the same year-over-year decline reported by Realtor.com), resulting in a 7.7 months supply of homes.

Both Realtor.com and RE/MAX rely on listing data direct from MLSs.  One of the advantages of listing data is that it’s remarkably timely; when listings come and go is tracked virtually to the minute.   Usually listings depart  because there’s a contract or a closed sale, but these days departures also could be owners taking their properties off the market to wait for better times.

Whether owners are pulling listings or simply not listing in the first place, the inventory numbers provide an insight into the psychology of supply and demand at work.  With demand soft in many markets and national average prices several points below last year’s post-tax credit plunge, keeping properties off the market for the near term may be a good idea for everyone concerned. “While such developments can be viewed as encouraging, markets remain fragile and could easily begin to deteriorate with further weakening of the economy or increases in foreclosure rates,” concluded the Realtor.com commentary.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California fell to a seasonally adjusted 487,940 units in September, down 2.1 percent from a revised 498,320 in August, according to information collected by the California Association of Realtors.

However, September home sales were up 4.1 percent from the revised 468,700 units sold during the like period a year ago. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2011 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“September’s sales decline was not a surprise, given the run of economic events that occurred during the time these sales were initiated, such as the debt debate, weakened stock market, and pending changes to the conforming loan limit,” said CAR President Beth L. Peerce. “This heightened uncertainty, coupled with the lower conforming loan limit, which some large lenders began implementing in early July, had an adverse impact on September sales.”

The September statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California was $287,440, down 3.2 percent from a revised $297,060 in August and down 8.3 percent from the $313,460 median price recorded for September 2010.

“While the median price declined in September, we’ve seen nominal month-to-month changes in the statewide median price since February, indicating some stability in home prices,” said CAR Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Additionally, September home sales remained on track with expectations for this year, and sales for all of 2011 should be about even with last year, slightly above 490,000 units.”

The Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes was 5.1 months in September, essentially unchanged from 5.0 months in August but down from a revised 5.9 months in September 2010. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home in California was 54.4 days in September 2011, compared with 50.3 days for the same period a year ago.

Data released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, 17 of the 20 MSAs posted positive monthly increases.  Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over the month and Denver was unchanged.

However, several other price reports, including Altos and RE/MAX, found that prices have fallen in August and September.

Case-Shiller’s July data, on an annual basis, found that Detroit and Washington DC were the two MSAs that posted positive rates of change, up 1.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. The remaining 18 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in July 2011 versus the same month last year. After three consecutive double-digit annual declines, Minneapolis improved marginally to a decline of 9.1 percent, which is still the worst of the 20 cities.

In July 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.7 percent and -4.1 percent, respectively. Both Composites and 14 MSAs - Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, Tampa, and Washington DC - saw their annual rates improve in July compared to June.

“With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities. The exceptions were Las Vegas and Phoenix where prices fell, while Denver was flat. The better news is that 14 of 20 cities and both Composites saw their annual rates of change improve in July.

“While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago.  The 10-City Composite is down 3.7 percent and the 20-City is down 4.1 percent compared to July 2010. Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery.

“As with May and June’s reports, we saw some unusually large revisions across some of the MSAs.  In particular, Detroit was most affected in July, with the revisions showing a much healthier market than previously thought. Our sales pairs data indicate that this market reported a lot more sales in May and June, which caused the revisions. As we have indicated before, when sales volumes are relatively low and the ratios of distressed-to-non-distressed sales are changing rapidly, revisions are more noticeable. These factors likely contributed to the revisions we saw not just in Detroit, but in many of the MSAs over the past few reports.

“Other recent housing statistics show that single-family housing starts were down slightly in August, and are about 2 percent below their year ago level; and these levels are at 30-year lows. Existing-home sales, however, were up in August and are about 20 percent above their August 2010 level. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default indices showed a continuing decline in mortgage default rates, a two-year trend. However, if you look at the state of the overall economy and, in particular, the recent large decline in consumer confidence, these combined statistics continue to indicate that the housing market is still bottoming and has not turned around.”

As of July 2011, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in the summer of 2003. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through July 2011, the peak-to-current declines for the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite are -31.0 percent and -30.9 percent, respectively. The peak-to-trough declines are -33.5 percent and -33.4 percent, respectively. The 10-City Composite hit its crisis low in April 2009, whereas the 20-City reached a more recent low in March 2011.

As of July 2011, 17 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly changes. Denver was flat. Las Vegas and Phoenix were marginally down over the month, with Las Vegas down by 0.2 percent and Phoenix down 0.1 percent. Las Vegas was the only city that posted a new index level low in July 2011. It is now 59.3 percent below its August 2006 peak.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2011, falling 4.1 percent during the first quarter; the Index still posted an annual decline of 5.9 percent from the second quarter of 2010.

The rise and fall of prices so far this year have brought the S&P/Case-Shiller indices virtually even with the levels at the beginning of the year.  The 20 city composite price for June, at 141.30, is slightly higher than January’s 140.71. The 10 city composite in June was 154.88 compared to 154.36 in January.

“This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6 percent from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities - Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa - as well as the weakest of all, Detroit.

‘These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together,” said Blitzer.

Other price reports, including NAR, Altos, RE/MAX and CoreLogic reported modest price gains in June on a year over year basis.  However, several reports on July prices, including RE/MAX and  MRIS in Washington DC, suggest that the trend might have reversed in July.

That’s how Altos Research sees the current market picture and the bottom line is buyers are sellers are in for a constant state of flux and volatility. The rules of yesterday’s market no longer apply.

In its third Mid-Cities Report, Altos reports prices increased in 14 of the 20 markets, and inventory also increased in 12 of the 20 markets.  The list of markets with price and  inventory increases has been in flux for the past three months.

The Altos 20-City Composite National Report showed signs of a slowing market a few weeks ago. The summer price bump is over and both prices and inventory are declining at the seven-day level. The next few weeks will set the stage for a long, cold winter. There’s nothing on the immediate horizon with employment or the economy that suggests a spike in fall or winter housing market activity, Altos said.

The median price was $256,120 in July, up $7 from $256,113 in June. For comparison, the Altos national composite median price was down 0.16 percent in July, from $450,894 to $450,176. The leaders in the three-month price increases are Boulder (8.23 percent), San Antonio (4.43 percent), and Boise (3.11 percent). Only two markets had decreasing prices over three months. Naples (-2.73 percent) and Dover (-1.25 percent). Boulder had the largest one-month increase in median price, with a 3.67 percent increase.

The largest one-month increase in inventory was Boulder, with a 3.26 percent increase.  The largest one-month decrease in inventory was Naples, with a 5.32 percent decrease. Naples also had the largest three-month decrease in inventory (-10.95 percent).  Eight of the 20 markets reported a decrease in inventory and six of the 20 markets reported a decrease in median prices.  The 7-day numbers have been declining and 90-day averages in the mid-cities composite are flattening for median prices and inventory.

RE/MAX reported that after rising for two straight months, home sales fell 12.7 percent in July when compared with sales in June, following a traditional summer trend.

However, for the first time in six months, sales were higher than one year ago, up an impressive 13.1 percent from July 2010 when sales plunged following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits.

The July 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report, which surveyed 53 U.S. metropolitan areas, shows signs of a continuing, but uneven, recovery in the housing market.   RE/MAX blamed appraisals and lenders for the decline, noting that many lenders are already using the lower GSE and FHA loan limits set to take effect on September 30.

“The fact that July home sales were higher than a year ago, and by such a significant amount, gives us reason for great optimism,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC.  “And now that prices have risen for four of the past five months, the housing market is beginning to show definite signs of recovery.”

In the last 12 months, only January and July had Home Sales higher than the previous year.  January was up fractionally and July was up a solid 13.1% from July 2010.  Both investors and traditional home buyers became a little more skittish about the economy in July, perhaps due to the Debt Ceiling debate.  Traditionally, June sales are the highest of the year, with a slight drop in July.  Overall, sales were 12.7% lower in July than in June. However, 45 metro areas experienced more sales than in July of last year.  Some of those leading their 2010 sales numbers include:  Des Moines, IA +49.9 percent, Omaha, NE +46.8 percent,  Milwaukee, WI  +37.7 percent,  Providence, RI +32.4 percent and Wichita, KS +29.0 percent.

The July 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report shows that Home Prices in July were just 0.18 percent lower than in June, while the year-over-year decrease of 4.6% is the smallest the survey has recorded in 6 months.  On a monthly basis, prices have now risen for four of the past five months.  There were 11 metro areas that recorded higher prices in July than in the same month last year, most notably:  Detroit +14.3 percent, Birmingham, AL +9.8 percent, Des Moines, IA +7.7 percent, Orlando, FL +5.5 percent and Pittsburgh, PA +4.4 percent.

The average Days on Market for homes sold in July was 88, down just two days from the June level. July marks the first month since September 2010 that the Days on Market figure has been below 90. The July average is identical to September 2010, when the average Days on Market was also 88. Days on Market is the average number of days from listing to receipt of a signed contract.

Perhaps due to fewer foreclosure properties coming on the market, the 53 metro areas surveyed in the July 2011 RE/MAX National Housing Report had an average Months Supply of Inventory of 7.2, which is up slightly from the 6.9 mark registered in June, but down significantly from the 9.3 mark seen in July 2010. Overall inventory continued a 13-month trend to lower levels. Inventories were 5.3% lower in July from June, and down 17.1 percent from July 2010.  The Florida markets continue to see the largest annual drop in inventory: Miami, FL -52.5%, Tampa, FL -37.3 percent, Phoenix, AZ -35.6 percent, Los Angeles, CA -32.4 percent and  Chicago, IL -26.9 percent.