Comments for RealEstateEconomyWatch.com http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com Insight and Intelligence on Residential Real Estate Fri, 12 Mar 2010 16:37:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 Comment on Where Did the Shadow go? by Steve Cook http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/03/where-did-the-shadow-go/comment-page-1/#comment-16720 Steve Cook Thu, 11 Mar 2010 15:22:47 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2681#comment-16720 Scot, Thanks for your comment. I don't deny that many lenders have had foreclosed properties on their books a long time but I do suggest that the huge shadow inventory of 1.7 to 7 million properties first forecast more than a year ago has yet to materialize--and may be a myth. Prices in most markets have stabilized but inventories are still falling. A year is a long time to sit on a foreclosed home without even putting in on the market. I don't deny that some lenders may be doing so, and that they may have an impact locally, but the shadow inventory is starting to look a little like Chicken Little. When it comes to inventories and their impact on prices, I think people ought to be more concerned about pendng supply than shadow inventory. Millions of owners have been waiting for prices to settle and move upward so that they can sell. One quarter of mortgage holders are still underwater, but the 30 percent of owners who have no mortgage and the 75 percent who are above water have been waiting 3 years for prices to improve. As they do, more and more homes wll come on the market and potentially dampen the recovery. Yes. my data comes from NAR's existing home sales, which is based on a survey of MLSs and does not include unlisted properties, whether short sales or FSBOs. The last numbers I saw on short sales (from Campbell Communications/Inside Mortgage Finance, not NAR) put them at about 15 percent of the distressed properties market. You're right, they are increasing and their percentage of the distressed market rose about 5 percent last year, but they are less than ten percent of all sales and that's not even close to the kind of numbers being bandied about by the shadow inventory folks. In sum, I think that we both agree that there are delayed distress sales out there, whether intentional or not, but at the local level it's hard to know the scale. Is it a thunderstorm or a hurricane? Nationally there's no sign of a storm of any sort and as time passes, all signs suggest that there won't be. But I could be wrong. Steve Scot,

Thanks for your comment.

I don’t deny that many lenders have had foreclosed properties on their books a long time but I do suggest that the huge shadow inventory of 1.7 to 7 million properties first forecast more than a year ago has yet to materialize–and may be a myth. Prices in most markets have stabilized but inventories are still falling. A year is a long time to sit on a foreclosed home without even putting in on the market. I don’t deny that some lenders may be doing so, and that they may have an impact locally, but the shadow inventory is starting to look a little like Chicken Little.

When it comes to inventories and their impact on prices, I think people ought to be more concerned about pendng supply than shadow inventory. Millions of owners have been waiting for prices to settle and move upward so that they can sell. One quarter of mortgage holders are still underwater, but the 30 percent of owners who have no mortgage and the 75 percent who are above water have been waiting 3 years for prices to improve. As they do, more and more homes wll come on the market and potentially dampen the recovery.

Yes. my data comes from NAR’s existing home sales, which is based on a survey of MLSs and does not include unlisted properties, whether short sales or FSBOs. The last numbers I saw on short sales (from Campbell Communications/Inside Mortgage Finance, not NAR) put them at about 15 percent of the distressed properties market. You’re right, they are increasing and their percentage of the distressed market rose about 5 percent last year, but they are less than ten percent of all sales and that’s not even close to the kind of numbers being bandied about by the shadow inventory folks.

In sum, I think that we both agree that there are delayed distress sales out there, whether intentional or not, but at the local level it’s hard to know the scale. Is it a thunderstorm or a hurricane? Nationally there’s no sign of a storm of any sort and as time passes, all signs suggest that there won’t be. But I could be wrong.

Steve

]]> Comment on Falling Home Values: The Worst may be Over by Tony http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/01/falling-home-values-the-worst-may-be-over/comment-page-1/#comment-16569 Tony Wed, 10 Mar 2010 19:23:56 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2591#comment-16569 The worst may come back, since the predictions aren't good for the real estate market in 2010 The worst may come back, since the predictions aren’t good for the real estate market in 2010

]]> Comment on Where Did the Shadow go? by Scot http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/03/where-did-the-shadow-go/comment-page-1/#comment-16561 Scot Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:44:50 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2681#comment-16561 I agree that there is movement in the marketplace, but do not agree that the shadow market is a myth. Where are you accounting for the inventory levels that most lenders still have on their books and have not passed through the entire foreclosure process. Your data is from NAR, which represents the inventory that is listed by agents. My company deals in the Short Sale acquisition part of the foreclosure market, and most lenders we talk to, all say they have thousands of files that have not been processed yet. Always open to free discussion of subjects. I agree that there is movement in the marketplace, but do not agree that the shadow market is a myth. Where are you accounting for the inventory levels that most lenders still have on their books and have not passed through the entire foreclosure process. Your data is from NAR, which represents the inventory that is listed by agents. My company deals in the Short Sale acquisition part of the foreclosure market, and most lenders we talk to, all say they have thousands of files that have not been processed yet.

Always open to free discussion of subjects.

]]> Comment on FTC Bans Up-front Fees for Mortgage Modification by kaizoku http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/02/ftc-bans-up-front-fees-for-mortgage-modification/comment-page-1/#comment-16529 kaizoku Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:46:03 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2614#comment-16529 Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now. Keep it up! And according to this article, I totally agree with your opinion, but only this time! :) Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now. Keep it up!
And according to this article, I totally agree with your opinion, but only this time! :)

]]> Comment on Spring Sales Are Slow by ElizabethL http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/03/spring-sales-start-to-sputter/comment-page-1/#comment-16350 ElizabethL Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:12:01 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2675#comment-16350 In lieu of this post - some home buyers pay be persuaded just a little more that it's an OK time a buy a home. Here's some information on getting all your ducks in a row before buying a home: http://www.fischerandfrichtel.com/blog/index.php/2010/02/getting-all-your-ducks-in-a-row-before-buying-your-new-home/ In lieu of this post - some home buyers pay be persuaded just a little more that it’s an OK time a buy a home. Here’s some information on getting all your ducks in a row before buying a home: http://www.fischerandfrichtel.com/blog/index.php/2010/02/getting-all-your-ducks-in-a-row-before-buying-your-new-home/

]]> Comment on Mortgage Giant Predicts Strong Housing Recovery Next Year by Steve Cook http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2009/12/mortgage-gian-predicts-strong-housing-recovery-next-year/comment-page-1/#comment-15715 Steve Cook Thu, 04 Mar 2010 21:22:38 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2466#comment-15715 Yes. Now that he is independent, you might find his point of view a bit different. Yes. Now that he is independent, you might find his point of view a bit different.

]]> Comment on Mortgage Giant Predicts Strong Housing Recovery Next Year by Harry http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2009/12/mortgage-gian-predicts-strong-housing-recovery-next-year/comment-page-1/#comment-15491 Harry Wed, 03 Mar 2010 07:40:35 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2466#comment-15491 Is this the same David Lereah who wrote the book: "Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust."? Is this the same David Lereah who wrote the book: “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust.”?

]]> Comment on Inventory Highest in Six Months by Must-Know News - Feb. 27 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/02/inventory-highest-in-six-months/comment-page-1/#comment-15099 Must-Know News - Feb. 27 Sat, 27 Feb 2010 18:17:15 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2666#comment-15099 [...] 11) Inventory Highest in Six Months [...] [...] 11) Inventory Highest in Six Months [...]

]]> Comment on Inventory Highest in Six Months by Tony Orlando http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/02/inventory-highest-in-six-months/comment-page-1/#comment-14931 Tony Orlando Fri, 26 Feb 2010 20:01:23 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2666#comment-14931 You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I?ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this. You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I?ve spent most of my time here just lurking and reading, but today for some reason I just felt compelled to say this.

]]> Comment on Inventory Highest in Six Months by Tony Orlando http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/2010/02/inventory-highest-in-six-months/comment-page-1/#comment-14929 Tony Orlando Fri, 26 Feb 2010 20:00:10 +0000 http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com/?p=2666#comment-14929 I found your site on Google and read a few of your other entires. Nice Stuff. I'm looking forward to reading more from you. I found your site on Google and read a few of your other entires. Nice Stuff. I’m looking forward to reading more from you.

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