PrintHousing Market Index
(12-15-10 Release Date)
Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May
16 16 15 13 13 14 16 22
Source: National Association of Homebuilders
Highlights
- The housing market index was unchanged in December at 16 from a month earlier.
- The housing market index was unchanged from a year ago.
Analysis
Homebuilder confidence has been flat since January of 2010. However, a level of 16 is extremely low from a historical perspective, reflecting very low confidence among homebuilders. The good news is low builder confidence has left the homebuilding industry with a relatively lean inventory of new residential construction.
Looking forward, the homebuilding industry is poised for a recovery but it will not occur until the foreclosure situation is settled. According to RealtyTrac, over 2.2 million properties are somewhere in the foreclosure process, contributing to an excessive inventory situation as well as downward pressure on home values. Homebuilders are not expected to gain any meaningful confidence until 2012.
October 26th, 2009 at 9:13 am
Questions. What do you mean by a “cyclical” low? What cycle are you refering to? If the index were to hit a low of 7 next month would that constitute a cyclical low. Are you refering to some seasonal low? Was there a cyclical low in the recession of the early 90s?
Your answer would be most helpful in my understanding.
Rex Peters